Mesoscale Characteristics of Exceptionally Heavy Rainfall during 4–6 May 2023 in Jiangxi, China

Abstract

A long-lasting rainfall event exceeding historical extremes took place in Jiangxi, China, from May 4 to 6, 2023. Because of the concentrated duration of precipitation, it led to significant water accumulation in the northern, central, and southern regions of Jiangxi. The objective of this study was to investigate the weather mechanisms underlying this extreme rainstorm in Jiangxi. By examining detailed observational data, the mesoscale weather characteristics and environmental conditions of the event can be obtained. These findings offer valuable insights for future weather forecasting and warnings. It was observed that after the Huanghuai cyclone moved eastward into the sea, the cold air on its western side shifted northward and converged with the warm, moisture-laden air mass in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. This convergence of air masses triggered the heavy rainstorm event. The peak precipitation period occurred from midnight on May 5 to 0800 BJT on May 6. Concerning the macroscopic precipitation characteristics, multiple mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) originated in Hunan during this period and progressed eastward along the shear line toward the central part of Jiangxi. As for the microscopic precipitation features, the total precipitation amount was closely linked to the duration of heavy rain droplets. The rainfall distribution in the raindrop spectrum also served as a valuable reference for understanding the persistence and size of precipitation. The temporal pattern of the combined reflectivity echo along 27.5° N indicated that from 2000 BJT on May 5 to the early morning of May 6, there was a rapid development of a weaker MCS after passing through the Luoxiao Mountains. This development resulted in a “train effect” in the central region of Jiangxi. The presence of a 200 hPa divergence area, high vertical ascent rate, and abundant water vapor contributed to the formation of a narrow area of heavy rainstorms in central Jiangxi. Additionally, the falling area of heavy rain coincided with the front of the 500 hPa low trough. In the northern part of Jiangxi, the occurrence of heavy precipitation was influenced by the equivalent temperature front area. Favorable conditions, including water vapor, dynamics, and thermal factors, further supported the occurrence of heavy precipitation.

Analysis of Precipitation Zone Forecasts and Examination of Numerical Forecasts for Two Heavy Rainfall Processes in June 2019 in Jiangxi, China 2019

“…Heavy rainfall (total precipitation ≥ 50 mm•day −1 ) is a hazardous weather phenomenon that often leads to severe natural disasters, including landslides, debris flows, and flash floods, posing significant risks to human lives and property [1][2][3][4]. It is also a prominent meteorological hazard in Jiangxi province, China [5]. Located in the subtropical monsoon climate zone, the southern part of Jiangxi province is frequently affected by heavy rainfall associated with the warm zone in southern China, making it more prone to convective heavy rainfall processes [6,7].…”