This study presents the development and experimental verification of a simulation model for estimating the local microstructure of a tool geometry after heat treatment. The experiment involved subjecting a metallic block of dimensions 40 × 50 × 50 mm, made of the ledeburitic cold work steel DIN EN 1.2379 (X153CrMoV12; AISI D2), to a heat treatment in a laboratory furnace at 1000 °C for 20 min. Thermocouples were strategically placed to record time-temperature profiles at different locations within the block. Following the heat treatment, the local microstructure was determined through quantitative image analysis, and the local hardness was measured as a function of the distance from the block’s edge to its core. These measurements were then correlated with the corresponding time-temperature curves obtained from the thermocouples. To replicate the local time-temperature profiles, the thermophysical properties of the steel were experimentally determined and incorporated into a finite element analysis heat transfer simulation using Abaqus FEA® software. This simulation approach, combined with the MatCalc software, facilitated the calculation of various local microstructural characteristics such as carbide content, carbide type, carbide distribution, and chemical composition of the matrix. Furthermore, the content fractions of the microconstituents of the matrix, including martensite and retained austenite, were determined based on the simulated martensite start temperature, employing an optimized function fitted to experimental data. The developed simulation model offers potential applications in two important areas. Firstly, it can be used to adapt heat treatment processes for tools of different sizes in production, optimizing their mechanical properties. Secondly, it enables efficient optimization of heat treatment routes by considering changing initial states, leading to high process quality in terms of mechanical properties. Overall, this study provides valuable insights into the estimation and control of local microstructure in tool geometries through the use of a validated simulation model.