Meta-analysis of public transport demand

Holmgren, Johan

doi:10.1016/j.tra.2007.06.003

Cited by 154 publications

(154 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…A third explanation might be the uncertainty that seems to be present as regards key relationships affecting public transport. In a meta-analysis Holmgren [5] shows that estimated fare elasticities range from zero to −1,32, and demand elasticities with respect to service level range from almost zero up to 1,9. The most striking variation concerns the effects of income on public transport demand.…”

Section: Problem and Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The main focus of most previous studies has been the effect of fares and the effect of quality of service (usually measured by vehicle-kilometres) [5]. This is understandable since these variables are considered to be under direct control of the supplier of public transport, but in order to understand the past development and predict the future, other variables must also be considered.…”

Section: Problem and Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nijkamp and Pepping [6], Kremers et al [7], Holmgren [5], and Hensher [8] have used meta-analysis in order to explain the variation in previous results and conclude that the specification of the model greatly affects the results but also that some of the variation is due to regional differences, the time period observed, and the type of data used. Based on these studies, two important questions which need to be examined further can be identified due to the lack of previous information or the presence of a large degree of uncertainty.…”

Section: Problem and Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

“…A Breusch-Godfrey test 5 was also applied in order to test for higher order autocorrelation [23]. The null hypothesis of no autocorrelation could not be rejected on a 5 % level, indicating that the model does not suffer from autocorrelation of higher order.…”

Section: Demand Model and Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…. x i;T ; φ i À Á ¼ E y i;t x i;t ; φ i À Á for t=1, 2, …, T. 5 In the test, the residuals from estimation of model 2 ( Δb e i;t ), are regressed on the explanatory variables included in the model (2) and lagged residuals. It is then tested if the coefficients connected to the lagged residuals are (jointly) different from zero.…”

Section: Demand Model and Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An analysis of the determinants of local public transport demand focusing the effects of income changes

Holmgren

2013

Eur. Transp. Res. Rev.

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Purpose In order for public transport to be a part of the solution to the environmental problems caused by traffic there need to be a clear understanding of how, and to what extent, different factors affect demand. There still seem to be some confusion regarding some key relationships, one of them being the effect of income on public transport demand. The purpose of this article is therefore to provide empirical estimates of how different factors, including price and car ownership (although income being the main issue), affect the demand for local public transport. Methods In order to achieve the aim of the study, an econometric FD-model, allowing for unobserved effects, was estimated using panel data from Swedish counes from 1986 to 2001. Results The short-run (direct) elascies with respect to fare, vehicle-kilometres, income and car ownership were found to be −0,4, 0,55, 0,34, and −1,37 respectively. However, income affects public transport demand directly, and through its effect on car ownership, these effects works in opposite direction. Combining these it is found that total income effect is close to zero. Conclusions It is concluded that, although the findings of several previous studies suggests that demand for public transport might be falling with increased income, there is no evidence of such effects even when the full effect of changes in income (including changes in car ownership) is taken into account.

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Section: Problem and Purposementioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Problem and Purposementioning

confidence: 99%