The objective of this study was to prospectively examine the comparative importance of body mass index (BMI) and metabolic syndrome (MS)-related risk factors in predicting future risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in women. Among 25,626 women who were aged ≥ 45 years and were free of CVD, cancer, and diabetes at baseline in the Women's Health Study, we classified all women into six groups according to 3 BMI categories (<25 kg/m 2 , 25-29.9 kg/m 2 , and ≥30 kg/m 2 ) and the presence or absence of the MS as defined by a modified criteria of the National Cholesterol Education Program's Adult Treatment Program III. During a median of 10-year follow-up, 724 incident CVD events were documented. Compared with lean women without the MS, the multivariate RRs of CVD adjusting for age, physical activity, and other covariates were 2.40 (95% CI, 1.71-3.37) for lean women who had the MS, 1.08 (95% CI, 0.87-1.33) for overweight women who had no MS, 3.01 (95% CI, 2.30-3.94) for overweight women with the MS, 1.58 (95% CI, 1.21-2.08) for obese women without the MS, and 2.89 (95% CI, 2.19-3.80) for obese women with the MS. Similar associations were also evident for total coronary heart disease but were not significant for total stroke. Overall, while CRP concentrations added additional prognostic information beyond BMI and the MS, CRP did not fully account for the observed high risk of CVD associated with MS. In conclusion, MS may largely account for the elevated risk of CVD associated with BMI among apparently healthy women. Body mass index (BMI), as a commonly used surrogate for overall adiposity, has been strongly associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) 1,2 . A clustering of related metabolic abnormalities including insulin resistance or diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia, defined as the metabolic syndrome (MS), has been recognized as a major contributor to the development of CVD 3-5 and is also thought to be an underlying mechanism for the adverse consequences of adiposity 6 . Although there is a well-defined gradient relationship between the level of BMI and the probability of having MS 7,8 , most obese individuals do not have MS and, conversely, many individuals with the MS are not overweight or obese 6,7 . In this study we examined joint associations of BMI with individual MSassociated risk factors and the MS as an entity in relation to the incidence of CVD over 10 years of follow-up of a large cohort of initially healthy women. We also investigated whether subclinical inflammation, as measured by plasma C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations, could modify these associations.
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MethodsThe Women's Health Study was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial designed to evaluate the balance of benefits and risks of low-dose aspirin and vitamin E in the primary prevention of CVD and cancer 9 . As described previously, participants provided detailed information on behavioral, lifestyle, and demographic risk factors at baseline 10 . In total, 39,876 female health profession...