Meteorological and Hydrological Drought Risks under Future Climate and Land-Use-Change Scenarios in the Yellow River Basin

Abstract

The primary innovation of this study lies in the development of an integrated modeling framework that combines downscaled climate projections, land-use-change simulations, and copula-based risk analysis. This framework allows for the assessment of localized sub-seasonal and seasonal drought hazards under future scenarios. The BCC-CSM1-1 climate model projections from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset are utilized to represent the future climate for 2025–2060 under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The CA-Markov model is employed to predict future land-use-change distributions. The climate–land use–drought modeling nexus enables the generation of refined spatio-temporal projections of meteorological and hydrological drought risks in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) in the future period of 2025–2060. The results highlight the increased vulnerability of the upper YRB to sub-seasonal meteorological droughts, as well as the heightened sub-seasonal hydrological drought risks in the Loess Plateau. Furthermore, downstream areas experience escalated seasonal hydrological drought exposure due to urbanization. By providing actionable insights into localized future drought patterns, this integrated assessment approach advances preparedness and climate adaptation strategies. The findings of the study enhance our understanding of potential changes in this integral system under the combined pressures of global climate change and land use shifts.

Variation in Water Deficit and Its Association with Climate Indices in Weihe River Basin, China

“…While many studies have focused on the sensitivity of vegetation to soil moisture deficit [10][11][12] or on the agricultural crop water deficit [13,14], many scholars have tried to detect the reason of water deficit in the WRB; most existing research has focused on reduced runoff, drought, and water security [15][16][17][18][19][20]. There is no comprehensive consideration of the impact of human activities, such as irrigation and urban development, and there is also a lack of research on the impact of climate change on water deficit.…”