Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall

Wiel, Karin van der; Stoop, Laurens; Zuijlen, B.R.H. van; Blackport, Russell; Broek, van den; Selten, Frank

doi:10.1016/j.rser.2019.04.065

Cited by 119 publications

(137 citation statements)

References 50 publications

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“…Brayshaw et al, 2012;Thornton et al, 2017Thornton et al, , 2019 and highlights the danger of compositing of many similar but subtly different individual circulations into a single weather type in terms of understanding their impact (e.g. individual meteorological events assigned to a particular weather type may look very different to each other and the canonical "average" weather pattern for the type; see also van der Wiel et al, 2019a). Several conclusions can be drawn from this brief review of MCPs applied to the European power system.…”

Section: Impact Of Standard Weather Types On European Power Systemsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

Bloomfield

Brayshaw

Charlton‐Perez

2019

Meteorological Applications

125

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Renewable electricity is a key enabling step in the decarbonization of energy. Europe is at the forefront of renewable deployment and this has dramatically increased the weather sensitivity of the continent's power systems. Despite the importance of weather to energy systems, and widespread interest from both academia and industry, the meteorological drivers of European power systems remain difficult to identify and are poorly understood. The present study presents a new and generally applicable approach, targeted circulation types (TCTs). In contrast to standard meteorological weather‐regime or circulation‐typing schemes, TCTs convolve the weather sensitivity of an impacted system of interest (in this case, the electricity system) with the intrinsic structures of the atmospheric circulation to identify its meteorological drivers. A new 38 year reconstruction of daily electricity demand and renewable supply across Europe is used to identify the winter large‐scale circulation patterns of most interest to the European electricity grid. TCTs provide greater explanatory power for power system variability and extremes compared with standard meteorological typing. Two new pairs of atmospheric patterns are highlighted, both of which have marked and extensive impacts on the European power system. The first pair resembles the meridional surface pressure dipole of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), but shifted eastward into Europe and noticeably strengthened, while the second pair is weaker and corresponds to surface pressure anomalies over Central Southern and Eastern Europe. While these gross qualitative patterns are robust features of the present European power systems, the detailed circulation structures are strongly affected by the amount and location of renewables installed.

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Section: Impact Of Standard Weather Types On European Power Systemsmentioning

confidence: 91%

Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

Bloomfield

Brayshaw

Charlton‐Perez

2019

Meteorological Applications

125

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…A comparison of the results based on the HadAM4 model and the ERA5 reanalysis is not possible for very extreme events due to the limited sample size of the reanalysis data (e.g., van den Hurk et al, 2015;van der Wiel et al, 2019). This is the case even when considering ERA5 data during the extended period 1980-2020, therefore we focus the evaluation on less extreme events.…”

Section: Present-day Spatial Scale Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Larger spatial footprint of wintertime total precipitation extremes in a warmer climate

Bevacqua

Shepherd

Watson

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Extremely wet winters resulting from one or multiple precipitation events can contribute to flooding leading to severe societal, natural, and economic impacts. When such extremely wet conditions occur simultaneously at multiple locations within the same region, their impacts may be enhanced and lead to extreme cumulative losses (Leonard et al., 2014). In fact, widespread extreme events can affect the ability of governments and international (re-)insurance companies to respond to the emergency, given that resources and funds need to be provided at multiple locations and industrial sectors simultaneously (Enríquez et al., 2020;Kemter et al., 2020; Zscheischler et al., 2020). Recent extreme events showed that, as a result of persistent atmospheric conditions, extremely wet winters and associated flooding can affect multiple countries simultaneously and put high pressure on railway/road networks and transnational risk-reduction mechanisms (

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“…TEV is not meant to be a substitute, but rather as a complement, for household EP measures, struggling to provide context and depth to the analysis of energy deprivation and just energy transitions. Territorial energy vulnerability is animated by a holistic understanding of energy security, understanding the latter as the capability of a territory to ensure equitable access-in terms of both quality and quantity-to resilient and sustainable energy services furthering the human and economic development of its population, respecting both planetary and local ecosystem limits (Urquiza and Billi, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Territorial Energy Vulnerability Assessment to Enhance Just Energy Transition of Cities

Calvo

Amigo

Billi

et al. 2021

Front. Sustain. Cities

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Energy poverty is a crucial concept in current global energy policy, both for the importance of securing equitable access to high-quality energy services to all human populations and to advance toward a just energy transition to a decarbonized economy. Nonetheless, one of the limitations of this concept due to its focus at the household scale, it has tended to omit relevant energy conditions at a territorial scale, which can also be a dimension of significant deprivation (e.g., transportation, schools, hospitals, public services, industrial uses among others.). On the other hand, energy services are highly dependent on context: on the geographic, ecological, technical, economic, and sociocultural conditions. This context-dependency determines the range of energy and technological alternatives available in a territory. Hence, a conceptual framework is required to better understand the starting point to a just energy transition, capable of integrating the complexity of socio-techno-ecological systems. To fill this gap, we present a framework based on the concept of Territorial Energy Vulnerability (TEV), defined as the propensity of a territory to not guarantee equitable access—in quantity and quality—to resilient energy services that allow the sustainable human and economic development of its population. That is a greater probability of inequity in access to energy services or a significant impacts derived from socio-natural risks that make it incapable of guaranteeing a sustainable and resilient provision of these services. Built on state-of-the-art conceptualizations of risk, we develop an indicator-based framework on vulnerability understood as the combination of sensitivity and resilience characteristics of socio-techno-ecological systems. Sensitivity relates to economic, demographic, infrastructure, technology, culture, and knowledge characteristics of socio-techno-ecological components. Meanwhile, resilience is presented in a three-dimensional framework based on flexibility, register, and self-transformation capacity of socio-techno-ecological systems. An application of this framework is developed using three case studies: Arica, Los Andes and Coyhaique, all Chilean cities with diverse ecological, technical, economic, and sociocultural conditions that shape territorial vulnerability. Using this framework as a diagnostic tool, the development of a just energy transition could adapt existing concepts of energy poverty and decarbonization pathways into context-specific guidelines and policies.

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Meteorological conditions leading to extreme low variable renewable energy production and extreme high energy shortfall

Cited by 119 publications

References 50 publications

Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

Characterizing the winter meteorological drivers of the European electricity system using targeted circulation types

Larger spatial footprint of wintertime total precipitation extremes in a warmer climate

Territorial Energy Vulnerability Assessment to Enhance Just Energy Transition of Cities

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