Meteorological factors and its association with hand, foot and mouth disease in Southeast and East Asia areas: a meta-analysis

Duan, Chunxiao; Zhang, Xuefeng; Jin, Hui; Cheng, Xiaoqing; Wang, Donglei; Bao, Cangjun; Zhou, Minghao; Ahmad, Tauseef; Min, Jie

doi:10.1017/s0950268818003035

Cited by 21 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…A nationwide HFMD outbreak in 2017 was predominantly caused by EV-A71, which predominated in many provinces of Thailand, as well as by CV-A6 and CV-A16 [ 23 ]. Numerous studies show that HFMD is related to environmental and sanitation factors such as high temperatures [ 24 ], high rainfall volumes [ 25 , 26 ], antiseptic availability, and personal hygiene [ 27 ]. In 2018, the Thai MOPH reported >70,000 cases of HFMD with three deaths [ 20 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Molecular Epidemiological Study of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in a Kindergarten-Based Setting in Bangkok, Thailand

et al. 2021

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Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious childhood illness and annually affects millions of children aged less than 5 years across the Asia–Pacific region. HFMD transmission mainly occurs through direct contact (person-to-person) and indirect contact with contaminated surfaces and objects. Therefore, public health measures to reduce the spread of HFMD in kindergartens and daycare centers are essential. Based on the guidelines by the Department of Disease Control, a school closure policy for HFMD outbreaks wherein every school in Thailand must close when several HFMD classrooms (more than two cases in each classroom) are encountered within a week, was implemented, although without strong supporting evidence. We therefore conducted a prospective cohort study of children attending five kindergartens during 2019 and 2020. We used molecular genetic techniques to investigate the characteristics of the spreading patterns of HFMD in a school-based setting in Bangkok, Thailand. These analyses identified 22 index cases of HFMD (symptomatic infections) and 25 cases of enterovirus-positive asymptomatic contacts (24 students and one teacher). Enterovirus (EV) A71 was the most common enterovirus detected, and most of the infected persons (8/12) developed symptoms. Other enteroviruses included coxsackieviruses (CVs) A4, CV-A6, CV-A9, and CV-A10 as well as echovirus. The pattern of the spread of HFMD showed that 45% of the subsequent enteroviruses detected in each outbreak possessed the same serotype as the first index case. Moreover, we found a phylogenetic relationship among enteroviruses detected among contact and index cases in the same kindergarten. These findings confirm the benefit of molecular genetic assays to acquire accurate data to support school closure policies designed to control HFMD infections.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Molecular Epidemiological Study of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in a Kindergarten-Based Setting in Bangkok, Thailand

et al. 2021

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“…The associations of HFMD incidence with climatic factors in Vietnam, South Korea, Japan and Hong Kong are relatively consistent: with relatively higher temperature or humidity, higher incidences are expected [12][13][14][15]. Reviews of articles including many countries also found the significant association between HFMD cases and both temperature and relative humidity [16,17], and association between HFMD cases and more climatic factors [17]. However, the conclusions of the association of incidence cyclic pattern with climatic factors in different specific locales (province, city or county) in China are inconsistent and even contradictory [18][19][20].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 84%

The transmission of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in East and Southeast Asia

Zhao

Wang

2019

Preprint

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Hand Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is in endemic in many countries in East and Southeast Asia, including those in the tropical or subtropical climate zones. To substantially reduce HFMD, it is necessary to design effective control measures, which is based on a deep understanding of the disease transmission. However, the transmission mechanism of HFMD was rarely studied. The cyclic pattern of HFMD incidence is believed to be related to climatic factors, rather than school terms as observed from childhood infectious diseases in developed countries in the prevaccination era. Furthermore, the association of incidence and climatic factors in different locales in China are inconsistent and even contradictory. Here we selected countries or regions in typical climatic zones in East and Southeast Asia to study the transmission rate and its seasonality for HFMD. Countries or regions selected representing temperate, subtropical and tropical zones are Japan, Hong Kong SAR, Macau SAR and Singapore. Comparatively, we chose provinces in mainland China in three climate zones and contrast them with above selected regions or countries. We used Time Series Susceptible Infected Recovered (TSIR) model to estimate the HFMD transmission rate. The parameters in the TSIR model were estimated by Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We then used a linear regression model to analyze the effects of climate factors, seasonal contact rate in children (and seasonal contact rate in population for provinces in China) on the transmission rate of HFMD in selected regions. We found that: 1) transmission rate of HFMD is highly seasonal in the studied countries, SARs and provinces of mainland China, except Singapore; 2) the HFMD transmission rate can be affected by the climatic factors as well as the seasonal contact rate of population, depending on which factor is dominant; 3) The transmission rate in provinces in China increased dramatically during the time period of Chinese Spring Travel Rush that has higher population contact; 4) transmission rate seasonality in Japan, Hong Kong SAR and Macau SAR is affected by climatic factors. Author SummaryHand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFME) is endemic in East and Southeast Asia with reported cases of more than two million every year. The epidemic patterns such as annual cyclic pattern of reported HFMD cases have been observed and studied for the purpose of understanding the disease. The mechanisms that describe how a disease is transmitted cannot be observed, however they lead to the observed epidemic patterns of the disease. We analyzed the transmission rate (that help to understand the transmission mechanism) of HFMD in selected countries or regions that represent territories in tropical, subtropical and temperate climatic zones in East and Southeast Asia and compared the HFMD transmission in these regions. We also analyzed the possible driving factors of the seasonal transmission of HFMD. The transmission of HFMD can be affected by both social behavior and climatic factors, however either of them can dominant t...

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“…The annual average temperature is 16.5 − 18.0°C, the annual maximum and minimum temperatures are 35.2 − 37.4°C and −5.3 ~ −1.4°C, respectively, and the annual average precipitation is 800 − 1400 mm. According to our previous studies and a meta-analysis, these climatic features could increase the risk of HFMD [ 14 – 17 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to improve infectious disease prediction by integrating environmental data: an application of a novel ensemble analysis strategy to predict HFMD

Tao

Zhuang

et al. 2021

Epidemiol. Infect.

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This study proposed a novel ensemble analysis strategy to improve hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) prediction by integrating environmental data. The approach began by establishing a vector autoregressive model (VAR). Then, a dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) model was used for variable selection of environmental factors. Finally, a VAR model with constraints (CVAR) was established for predicting the incidence of HFMD in Chengdu city from 2011 to 2017. DBN showed that temperature was related to HFMD at lags 1 and 2. Humidity, wind speed, sunshine, PM10, SO2 and NO2 were related to HFMD at lag 2. Compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average model with external variables (ARIMAX), the CVAR model had a higher coefficient of determination (R2, average difference: + 2.11%; t = 6.2051, P = 0.0003 < 0.05), a lower root mean-squared error (−24.88%; t = −5.2898, P = 0.0007 < 0.05) and a lower mean absolute percentage error (−16.69%; t = −4.3647, P = 0.0024 < 0.05). The accuracy of predicting the time-series shape was 88.16% for the CVAR model and 86.41% for ARIMAX. The CVAR model performed better in terms of variable selection, model interpretation and prediction. Therefore, it could be used by health authorities to identify potential HFMD outbreaks and develop disease control measures.

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Meteorological factors and its association with hand, foot and mouth disease in Southeast and East Asia areas: a meta-analysis

Cited by 21 publications

References 35 publications

Molecular Epidemiological Study of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in a Kindergarten-Based Setting in Bangkok, Thailand

Molecular Epidemiological Study of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in a Kindergarten-Based Setting in Bangkok, Thailand

The transmission of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in East and Southeast Asia

How to improve infectious disease prediction by integrating environmental data: an application of a novel ensemble analysis strategy to predict HFMD

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