Method and case study of quantitative uncertainty analysis in building energy consumption inventories

Lu, Yuehong; Huang, Zhijia; Ting, Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2012.10.046

Cited by 25 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…by iterating 10,000 simulation runs). This technique has been applied in a number of probabilistic analysis [22][23][24][25][26] .The Latin Hypercube Sampling method is proposed to generate those random numbers, because it more precisely reflects the shape of a defined distribution with relative small sample sizes [26].…”

Section: Probabilistic Risk Assessment Of Energy Saving Shortfall Promentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Based on the results of the sensitivity analysis, the first seven parameters were considered as the influential parameters and, for them, representative PDF were developed to simulate their yearly variations during the post-retrofit period. The selection of the representative distribution followed the three established tests, namely the Chi-square test, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, and the Anderson-Darling (A-D) test [21,26]. The K-S test was used when the sample sizes were less than 30.…”

Section: Probability Distribution Of the Selected Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Probabilistic risk assessment of the energy saving shortfall in energy performance contracting projects–A case study

Lee

Lam

Yik

et al. 2013

Energy and Buildings

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Lack of a proper assessment method on performance risks in Energy PerformanceContracting (EPC) projects is one of the reasons hindering the further development of Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) market. This paper proposes a simulation-based method to evaluate the probability of energy saving shortfall taking into account the variations in the influential parameters, including weather conditions, occupancy, operating hours, thermostat set-point, etc., during the contract period. The proposed method involves the use of a detailed building energy simulation programme, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Empirical data is also used to develop the probability distribution functions for the identified parameters to simulate the actual yearly variations in the post-retrofit conditions. A real case study This is the Pre-Published Version.2 of replacement of heat rejection system for a central chiller plant in Hong Kong is used to demonstrate the application of this probabilistic method. The result shows that the possible energy savings after a 1-year retrofit period ranges from 393,000 kWh (2.86%) to 1,098,000 kWh (10.8%) with 90% statistical significance.

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Section: Probabilistic Risk Assessment Of Energy Saving Shortfall Promentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Probability Distribution Of the Selected Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic risk assessment of the energy saving shortfall in energy performance contracting projects–A case study

Lee

Lam

Yik

et al. 2013

Energy and Buildings

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Instead, the probability distribution is first divided into ranges of equal probability, and then one sample is taken from each range [39]. For some applications with a given simulation sample size, LHS is a more precise numerical simulation method than MCS [39]. In the Analytica®, median Latin hypercube is preferred to random Latin hypercube due to its high accuracy that is why it is set as the default sampling method.…”

Section: Methods For Simulating Uncertainty Propagationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In LHS, the values of each uncertain input are not randomly generated. Instead, the probability distribution is first divided into ranges of equal probability, and then one sample is taken from each range [39]. For some applications with a given simulation sample size, LHS is a more precise numerical simulation method than MCS [39].…”

Section: Methods For Simulating Uncertainty Propagationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Millennium Development Goal 7 in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria via Emissions Inventory of Flared Gas

Giwa¹,

Nwaokocha²,

Layeni³

2016

Nig. J. Tech.

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Emissions released into the atmosphere from gas flaring in the Niger Delta Region (NDR) of Nigeria have adversely affected the environment and well-being of the inhabitants. This present study aimed at employing the emission inventory of flared gas in this region to assess the level of achievement of Millennium development goal (MDG) 7 with respect to sustainable environment. Greenhouse gas (GHG) and black carbon (BC) inventory of the region was estimated from gas flared data sourced from Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation using empirical formula and emission factors obtained from literature. For the period in view , a total estimate of 1.80 x 10 9 tons of CO2 equivalent (tCO2 e) was released into the atmosphere from the flaring of 555.74 Bcm of gas. Relative uncertainty of the emission was between -92.2% and 51.16%. It was observed that the present (2014) quantity of emissions has reduced by 49.71% (3.61 x 10 7 tCO2 e) compared to the emissions (7.26 x 10 7 tCO2 e) for the year 1990. The results showed that MDG-7 on environmental sustainability in the NDR is progressing well with considerable emission reduction achieved through increased utilization of gas in the country to reduce the volume of gas flared.Keyword: Emissions inventory; greenhouse gas; black carbon; millennium development goals; Niger Delta; flared gas

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“…According to L PerezLombard et al, 1 R Ramanathan,2 it is shown that since 1984, primary energy has grown by 49% and CO 2 emissions by 43%, with an average annual increase of 2% and 1.8%, respectively. Current predictions, made by L Belussi and L Danza 3 and Y Lu et al, 4 show that this growth will continue. N Fumo et al, 5 R Saidur, 6 and JE Seem 7 discussed the relationship linking energy consumption with economic development and population growth and attempted to reverse this trend by increasing energy efficiency.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of a large-scale commercial building in Shanghai, China

Wang

Huang

Zou

2016

Advances in Mechanical Engineering

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Reasonable test, diagnosis, and analysis are meaningful for building energy efficiency retrofit and management. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emission of a large-scale commercial building are described in this article. Basic information about energy consumption equipment is included in the investigation. Further diagnoses about the operational state of air-conditioning water systems, and ducted systems were implemented. Energy consumption decreased 200 kWh/m 2 per year from 2007 to 2009 after energy-saving reconstruction in 2006. Next, a carbon audit was carried out; this comprised CO 2 emission statistics associated with the energy use and categorization and structural analysis (categorization refers to energy categorization and structural analysis means the composition and its proportion relationship of all kinds of primary energy and secondary energy in energy production or consumption). Greenhouse gas emissions could be less than 150 kg/m 2 per year from 2007 to 2009. An analysis of the correlation between CO 2 emissions, building gross domestic product, and energy efficiency is also presented. This article makes an analysis on the energy utilization and energy-saving reconstruction of a public commercial building in Shanghai and then makes an analysis of carbon audit about greenhouse gas emissions related to energy utilization (it analyzes the status of building's energy utilization and greenhouse gas emissions), to have a more comprehensive understanding on the internal relationship between energy consumption and its greenhouse gas emissions and provide researchful reference data for the development with reduction strategies of greenhouse gas emission in future building.

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Method and case study of quantitative uncertainty analysis in building energy consumption inventories

Cited by 25 publications

References 8 publications

Probabilistic risk assessment of the energy saving shortfall in energy performance contracting projects–A case study

Probabilistic risk assessment of the energy saving shortfall in energy performance contracting projects–A case study

Assessment of Millennium Development Goal 7 in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria via Emissions Inventory of Flared Gas

The analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of a large-scale commercial building in Shanghai, China

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