Method for Determining the Parameters of the Probability Distribution of the Population Strength Characteristics of Structural Steels Based on Sample Data

Kotesov, Anatoly Anatolievich

doi:10.46973/0201-727x_2020_4_23

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“…Ключевыми факторами, определяющими безопасность опасных производственных объектов, являются так называемый «человеческий фактор», наличие систем безопасности и надежность используемых на объекте машин и механизмов. Как известно [1][2][3][4], надежность является комплексным свойством, включающим безотказность, ремонтопригодность, долговечность и сохраняемость. В данной статье рассматривается влияние безотказности машины, как одного из основных параметров надежности, на безопасность ее эксплуатации.…”

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“…В то же время последствием случайного опасного отказа машины может быть экономический ущерб. В этом случае риск оценивает так называемую функциональную безопасность производственного объекта [3][4][5]. Следовательно, к исследованию безопасности производственного объекта, в котором происходит случайный опасный и недиагностируемый отказ машины, следует применять методы теории надежности как часть теории вероятностей.…”

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Production Facilities Safety Assessment According to the Maximum Values of Machines Reliability

Deryushev

Teplyakova

Zaitseva

2023

jour

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Introduction. At the stage of designing technical devices and performing appropriate strength calculations of metal structures, sufficiently large reserves of strength are taken, which, theoretically, exclude any failures of parts. In fact, the machines work with frequent failures. Of interest are undiagnosed failures that lead to a critical decrease in safety, especially at hazardous production facilities. It is assumed that the previously applied approaches of selective determination of the maximum (minimum) reliability value, based on point estimates of the distribution parameters of the two-parameter Weibull law, lead to an overestimation of the calculated indicators of the probability of failure-free operation, i.e. underestimation of risk. Therefore, the work objective is to consider an approach to assessing the risk of operating production facilities in a situation of accidental occurrence of dangerous and undiagnosed failures in systems.Materials and Methods. Methods for technical devices safety assessment based on probability theory were used in the work, and the probability of machine failure was determined based on the well-known method of reliability theory. This method consists in calculating and constructing distribution functions of random variables (load-bearing capacity and loading) that influence the occurrence of failure. The level of increase in the reliability index was determined, leading to frequent unpredictable failures of technical devices (machines) and a decrease in the safety of their operation.Results. The signs of inconsistency of strength calculations based on overestimated safety margins, which in theory exclude failures of parts and machines in general, are identified and substantiated. A new approach to risk assessment of operating production facilities in a situation of accidental occurrence of dangerous and undiagnosed failures by safety systems has been developed and implemented. An algorithm for determining the three parameters of Weibull's law for a population based on sample data has been developed. The resource distribution densities of the boom of the single-bucket excavator EK-14 are constructed. The recommendations are given to increase the probability of failure-free operation to 0.9989.Discussion and Conclusion. The results of the conducted research allow us to substantiate a new approach to risk assessment of operating production facilities in the event of dangerous and undiagnosed failures of basic parts by safety systems, leading to negative consequences.

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