Method for Identifying and Forecasting Mining-Induced Earthquakes Based on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Microseismic Activities in Fankou Lead/Zinc Mine

Abstract

The risks associated with underground mining at Fankou Lead/Zinc Mine in South China are growing due to the large-scale mining activities there. To recognize mining-induced earthquakes and assess the risk per mining level, a microseismic monitoring system, which is used to record microseismic events, is installed at multiple mining levels in Fankou Lead/Zinc Mine. The purpose of this study is to identify mining-induced earthquakes and to evaluate the risk per mining level by analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of microseismic activities in the Fankou Lead/Zinc Mine. In this study, the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) relationship is applied to compute the b-value, which is used to obtain the maximum magnitude (M (max)) of microseismic event that probably occurs at each mining level. Then, the evaluation of the recurrence period for M (max) and the probability of the microseismic event with the magnitude M (max) is carried out and the M (max) at each mining level is determined based on the recording period of microseismic events. The results show that factors such as the maximum rock vibration velocity, source parameters, displacement, microseismic waveform and energy ratio (ES/EP) can be used to distinguish whether a recorded microseismic event is mining-induced earthquake. Additionally, we propose a method to assess the possibility of mining-induced earthquake at each mining level based on M (max) and predict the recurrence time of microseismic event with the magnitude M (max). The of two years results of microseismic events monitoring demonstrate that the current study is promising for identifying mining-induced earthquakes, assessing the risk of mining-induced earthquakes, predicting the potential maximum microseismic event in a region and estimating its recurrence period and its probability in the Fankou Lead/Zinc Mine.