Method for Probabilistic Energy Calculations—Passive House Case Study

Burke, Stephen; Kronvall, Johnny; Wiktorsson, Magnus; Sahlin, Per; Ljungberg, Anders

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-00662-4_54

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…As an example, negative domestic hot water use, which could happen if the parameter distribution was continuous. This result is additional confirmation of earlier research by Burke et al [16] since an alternative method was used to replicate previous research with similar results. Unfortunately, there is no data available to compare and test the consequences and the results from the risk analysis against.…”

Section: Proof Of Conceptsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…This method is a combination of two paths, used to determine both the probability and the consequence. The path for determining the probability of failure is based the method for probabilistic energy calculations presented by Burke et al [16] and further developed to enable the identification of probability. For the path of determining the consequences a method for defining and evaluating the consequences was developed.…”

Section: Methods Used In Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The case study was applied to the same building that has been previously used in the project [16], and using the same parameter distributions. The same simulation tool -IDA ICE [17] -and method for probabilistic energy calculations developed by Burke et al were used to replicate the probability of fulfilling the regulation and to collect quantitative data.…”

Section: Demonstration Of Methods -Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The stochastic parameters included in the evaluation were kept to the same 15 parameters as in the previous study [16], both to simplify the work and to be able to compare the results. The type of uncertainty that was included in the parameter distributions were based on the "scenario" and "design -decided" as defined earlier in the introduction section.…”

Section: Stochastic Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Proposed method for probabilistic risk analysis using building performance simulations and stochastic parameters

et al. 2020

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As parts of the world continue the work of mitigating the impact of climate change, many countries strive for continued reductions in energy demand from buildings by implementing more stringent building regulations. Consequently, the importance of accurate and efficient building performance simulations to predict the energy use of a building design increases. As observed in earlier studies, there are performance gaps between the predicted annual energy demand from building energy performance simulations based on deterministic methods compared to the monitored annual energy use of a building. This paper presents a preliminary method developed using probabilistic methods for risk analysis and building performance simulations to predict the energy performance of buildings using stochastic parameters. The method is used to calculate the probability for the energy performance of a building design to fulfil the energy requirements. The consequences are quantified using an example of energy performance contracting to evaluate the inherent risk of a building’s design. The method was demonstrated in a case study and validated by comparing the results in energy performance and probability of failure against measured data from 26 single-family houses.

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Section: Proof Of Conceptsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Methods Used In Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Demonstration Of Methods -Case Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Stochastic Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Proposed method for probabilistic risk analysis using building performance simulations and stochastic parameters

et al. 2020

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Probabilistic risk analysis and building performance simulations – Building design optimisation and quantifying stakeholder consequences

Ekström¹,

Sundling²,

Burke³

et al. 2021

Energy and Buildings

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Proposed Method for Probabilistic Energy Simulations for Multi-Family Dwellings

et al. 2020

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As regulations regarding energy use and emissions of CO2 equivalents in buildings become more stringent, the need for more accurate tools and improved methods for predicting these parameters in building performance simulations increases. In the first part of this project, a probabilistic method was developed and applied to the transient energy calculations and evaluated using a single-family dwelling case study. The method was used to successfully predict the variation of the energy use in 26 houses built in the same residential area and with identical building characteristics and services. This project continues the development and testing of the probabilistic method for energy calculations by applying it to a multi-family building. The complexity of the building model increases as the multi-family model consists of 52 zones, compared to the single-zone model used for the single-family dwelling. The multi-family model also includes additional parameters that are evaluated, such as the domestic hot water circulation losses. This paper presents the probabilistic method applied to the building performance simulations used to predict the energy use for the multi-family building and discusses the differences between the previous and new method used in this study.

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Method for Probabilistic Energy Calculations—Passive House Case Study

Cited by 3 publications

References 1 publication

Proposed method for probabilistic risk analysis using building performance simulations and stochastic parameters

Proposed method for probabilistic risk analysis using building performance simulations and stochastic parameters

Probabilistic risk analysis and building performance simulations – Building design optimisation and quantifying stakeholder consequences

Proposed Method for Probabilistic Energy Simulations for Multi-Family Dwellings

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