The article substantiates the need for a prognostic approach and formulates the problem to assessing minimal erythema dose (MED) in dermatology without UV test exposure. Arguments are given in favor of using a number of optical non-invasive diagnostic methods for this purpose. The photosensitivity of human skin to ultraviolet radiation is determined by its optical and morphological parameters, as well as the reactivity of the skin microvasculature. These values can be determined before treatment; therefore, it is theoretically possible to predict an individual MED for healthy and psoriasis-affected skin. The article substantiates possible methods and approaches for solving this problem, proposes an optical model of the skin, and describes the proposed research protocol.