Methodological approach of construction business failure prediction studies: a review

Alaka, Hafiz; Oyedele, Lukumon O.; Ajayi, Saheed O.; Bilal, Muhammad; Akinadé, Olúgbénga O.

doi:10.1080/01446193.2016.1219037

Cited by 25 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 92 publications

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“…SVM is another widely applied algorithm that uses a kernel function to control decision function (Alaka et al, ). SVM applies a linear model by converting data into a new feature space and then separate the hyperplane optimally.…”

Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Moreover, Cho, Hong, and Ha (2010) found that DT is also useful in selecting an initial set of input variables before developing a final prediction model. SVM is another widely applied algorithm that uses a kernel function to control decision function (Alaka et al, 2016). SVM applies a linear model by converting data into a new feature space and then separate the hyperplane optimally.…”

Section: Bankruptcy Prediction Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting multistage financial distress: Reflections on sampling, feature and model selection criteria

Farooq

Qamar

2019

Journal of Forecasting

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This research proposes a prediction model of multistage financial distress (MSFD) after considering contextual and methodological issues regarding sampling, feature and model selection criteria. Financial distress is defined as a three‐stage process showing different nature and intensity of financial problems. It is argued that applied definition of distress is independent of legal framework and its predictability would provide more practical solutions. The final sample is selected after industry adjustments and oversampling the data. A wrapper subset data mining approach is applied to extract the most relevant features from financial statement and stock market indicators. An ensemble approach using a combination of DTNB (decision table and naïve base hybrid model), LMT (logistic model tree) and A2DE (alternative N dependence estimator) Bayesian models is used to develop the final prediction model. The performance of all the models is evaluated using a 10‐fold cross‐validation method. Results showed that the proposed model predicted MSFD with 84.06% accuracy. This accuracy increased to 89.57% when a 33.33% cut‐off value was considered. Hence the proposed model is accurate and reliable to identify the true nature and intensity of financial problems regardless of the contextual legal framework.

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Section: Theoretical Backgroundmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Bankruptcy Prediction Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting multistage financial distress: Reflections on sampling, feature and model selection criteria

Farooq

Qamar

2019

Journal of Forecasting

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“…En Chile, cerca del 7% de los emprendimientos fracasan en su etapa inicial (Guerrero y Serey, 2018); a nivel general nacional, en el 2016, se registraron 3593 empresas con quiebras terminadas (SIR, 2016). El fracaso en los negocios es parte de la dinámica empresarial y depende de múltiples factores (Alaka et al, 2016). Así como se estudian los factores que determinan el éxito empresarial (Chatterjee y Das, 2016), los determinantes del fracaso en los negocios han sido estudiados en el área del emprendimiento, por ejemplo, los ingresos insuficientes para la supervivencia, los problemas de financiamiento, los problemas con la ejecución del plan estratégico, las crisis económicas o políticas y la falta de indicadores o seguimiento (Pardo y Alfonso, 2017).…”

Section: Antecedentes Teóricosunclassified

Reingreso al emprendimiento después del fracaso: Factores que influyen sobre los emprendedores seriales y de segunda oportunidad

Ibáñez

2020

Multidiscip. bus. rev (Impr.)

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Este artículo investiga los factores que influyen en la probabilidad de volver a emprender luego del fracaso empresarial, entre estos, los factores sociodemográficos y los económicos. En particular, se examina el efecto de la edad, el nivel educacional, el rol proveedor del emprendedor en la familia, la cobertura de los instrumentos y los servicios públicos para el emprendimiento, así como los motivos que llevan al emprendedor al cierre del negocio, sobre la disposición del emprendedor fallido a iniciar una nueva empresa. Se utiliza una muestra de 274 emprendedores fallidos de Chile, el país con la mayor tasa de actividad emprendedora (TEA) en el mundo, según el reporte del GEM 2019/2020. Los resultados de este estudio señalan que las variables principales tienen una influencia negativa en la probabilidad de reingresar al emprendimiento luego del fracaso empresarial, pero solo resultan significativas la edad, la cobertura regional de los servicios técnicos para el emprendimiento, la quiebra, la preferencia por el trabajo asalariado y el desempleo a nivel regional. Esta investigación contribuye a ampliar la evidencia empírica respecto a los factores que influyen sobre los emprendedores en serie y de segunda oportunidad, más allá de los aspectos relativos a la intención emprendedora y los elementos del comportamiento del emprendedor. Este trabajo entrega conclusiones relevantes orientadas al diseño de políticas públicas e instrumentos de fomento para los emprendedores que están dispuestos a crear un nuevo negocio luego del fracaso empresarial.

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“…Unlike generative approaches where each model must have sound theoretical foundation, qualitative approaches allow subjectivity in the constructed model. According to [2], subjectivity is accepted when human behavior is under study.…”

Section: Qualitative Approachesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Taxonomy of Event Prediction Methods

Gmati

Chakhar²,

Chaari

et al. 2019

Lecture Notes in Computer Science

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Most of existing event prediction approaches consider event prediction problems within a specific application domain while event prediction is naturally a cross-disciplinary problem. This paper introduces a generic taxonomy of event prediction approaches. The proposed taxonomy, which oversteps the application domain, enables a better understanding of event prediction problems and allows conceiving and developing advanced and context-independent event prediction techniques.

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Methodological approach of construction business failure prediction studies: a review

Cited by 25 publications

References 92 publications

Predicting multistage financial distress: Reflections on sampling, feature and model selection criteria

Predicting multistage financial distress: Reflections on sampling, feature and model selection criteria

Reingreso al emprendimiento después del fracaso: Factores que influyen sobre los emprendedores seriales y de segunda oportunidad

A Taxonomy of Event Prediction Methods

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