Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production

White, Jeffrey W.; Hoogenboom, Gerrit; Kimball, Bruce A.; Wall, Gerard W.

doi:10.1016/j.fcr.2011.07.001

Cited by 537 publications

(341 citation statements)

References 42 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

331

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…This disadvantage is also due to the population that consumes these crops which is small when compared to other cereals. The relationship can be associated with the analysis of White [145]. However, these crops can be of major importance locally as they represent large potential for reducing food insecurity and poverty in semi-arid areas.…”

Section: Ups Models and Authors Country Cropsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crop Upgrading Strategies and Modelling for Rainfed Cereals in a Semi-Arid Climate—A Review

Silungwe

Graef

Bellingrath-Kimura

et al. 2018

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Spatiotemporal rainfall variability and low soil fertility are the primary crop production challenges facing poor farmers in semi-arid environments. However, there are few solutions for addressing these challenges. The literature provides several crop upgrading strategies (UPS) for improving crop yields, and biophysical models are used to simulate these strategies. However, the suitability of UPS is limited by systemization of their areas of application and the need to cope with the challenges faced by poor farmers. In this study, we reviewed 187 papers from peer-reviewed journals, conferences and reports that discuss UPS suitable for cereals and biophysical models used to assist in the selection of UPS in semi-arid areas. We found that four UPS were the most suitable, namely tied ridges, microdose fertilization, varying sowing dates, and field scattering. The DSSAT, APSIM and AquaCrop models adequately simulate these UPS. This work provides a systemization of crop UPS and models in semi-arid areas that can be applied by scientists and planners.

show abstract

Section: Ups Models and Authors Country Cropsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crop Upgrading Strategies and Modelling for Rainfed Cereals in a Semi-Arid Climate—A Review

Silungwe

Graef

Bellingrath-Kimura

et al. 2018

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Detailed crop simulation studies at various scales are required due to spatial variability of climate especially rainfall, in order to provide relevant knowledge on impacts and for evaluating possible adaptation options under farm and policy levels (Thompson, Berrang-Ford, & Ford, 2010;White, Hoogenboom, Kimball, & Wall, 2011). The use of multiple-models in climate change assessment has shown to enhance the quantification of uncertainties, as different models differ in structure and parameter values (Rötter, Carter, Olesen, & Porter, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Rainfed Sorghum and Maize: Implications for Food Security Policy in Tanzania

Msongaleli¹,

Rwehumbiza²,

Tumbo³

et al. 2015

JAS

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Concern about food security has increased because of a changing climate, which poses a great threat to food crop productivity. Climate change projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and crop models were used to investigate the impacts of climate change on rain-fed cereal production. Calibrated and evaluated crop models simulated maize and sorghum yields over time periods and scenarios across central zone Tanzania with and without adaptation. Simulation outputs without adaptation showed predominant decrease and increase in maize and sorghum yields, respectively. The results showed that maize yields were predicted to decline between 1% and 25% across periods, representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and global circulation models (GCMs). However, sorghum yields were on average predicted to increase between 5% and 21%. Overall when adaptation is incorporated toward mid-century, yields are projected to increase for both crops. The yield projections variation between cereal crops highlights the importance of location and crop specific climate change impact assessments. Despite the uncertainties in predicting the impacts of climate change on rainfed crops, especially on cereals (maize and sorghum) which are important staple food crops in semi-arid Tanzania, the findings of this study enable policy makers to develop plans aimed at sustainable food security. In conclusion, the results demonstrate the presumption that sorghum productivity stands a better chance than maize under prospects of negative impacts from climate change in central zone Tanzania.

show abstract

“…The tools usually used to predict the effect of climate change on crop productivity are crop growth simulation models, which are mainly based on single factor treatment, i.e. taking into consideration only elevated CO 2 or elevated temperature (White et al, 2011). The effects of multi-factor treatment on crop yield have been included at experimental level, e.g.…”

Section: Crop Yieldmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the case of future agricultural systems, primary data from field experiments are not available, since the effect of climate change can only be simulated, either through experimental facilities mimicking the future climate or crop simulation models. According to the review performed by White et al (2011) on 221 peerreviewed papers that used crop simulation models to examine diverse aspects of how climate change might affect agricultural systems, wheat, maize, soybean and rice are the crops mainly studied among cereals. Spring barley has been much less considered in crop modeling, and accordingly models for barley were developed with less experimental data than those for the above-mentioned cereals.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

Niero

Ingvordsen

Jørgensen

et al. 2015

Journal of Cleaner Production

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production

Cited by 537 publications

References 42 publications

Crop Upgrading Strategies and Modelling for Rainfed Cereals in a Semi-Arid Climate—A Review

Crop Upgrading Strategies and Modelling for Rainfed Cereals in a Semi-Arid Climate—A Review

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Rainfed Sorghum and Maize: Implications for Food Security Policy in Tanzania

How to manage uncertainty in future Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) scenarios addressing the effect of climate change in crop production

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About