Methodology and Findings for the Exposure Analysis of the Chinese Wastewater Sector to Flooding and Earthquakes Hazards

Abstract

The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about development issues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. This paper is a product of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, Climate Change Group. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make a contribution to development policy discussions around the world.

Water Infrastructure Resilience

“…Note: PGA = peak ground acceleration; H = high; L = low; M = medium; VH = very high; VL = very low. Hu et al (2019) find that, for China, earthquakes also pose a significant risk to wastewater treatment operations. In addition to PGA, the potential for soil liquefaction was considered.…”

“…Although some studies show promise in identifying vulnerable sections of water infrastructure (such as Bagriacik et al 2016), they rely on highquality data to describe the existing network, which limits their applicability to developing countries, where data may not be readily available. However, two assessments were undertaken to illustrate possible vulnerabilities: (i) a partial assessment of large dams, looking at their exposure to high river flows and earthquakes; and (ii) a case study of China's wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) to understand the level of exposure faced by these critical water infrastructure elements to river floods and earthquakes (Hu et al 2019).…”

“…Source: Hu et al (2019) Note: WWTP (top) and user exposure (bottom) to net change (positive, zero, or negative) of flood hazards for all models at return periods greater than 1 in 30 (blue bar), 1 in 50 (orange bar), and 1 in 100 years (red bar) for RCP 4.5. Time period: values indicate net change between (1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997)(1998)(1999)(2000)(2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005) and .…”

“…The case study on exposure of WWTPs to river floods and earthquakes is based on a dataset of 1,346 WWTPs in China, which includes plant locations and the population dependent on each plant. According to Hu et al (2019), climate change will significantly increase the exposure of Chinese WWTPs to floods, even over the short term, with large potential impacts on users. The sign of this effect is consistent in 10 out of the 11 climate models considered, although the magnitude of the impacts varies across models.…”