Methodology for Drought Risk Assessment in Within-year Regulated Reservoir Systems. Application to the Orbigo River System (Spain)

Haro-Monteagudo, David; Solera, Abel; Paredes, José María Rubio; Andreu, Joaquín

doi:10.1007/s11269-014-0710-3

Cited by 25 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Anthropic systems have, in fact, a demonstrated ability to endure meteorological droughts for months, or even years, without suffering consequences, i.e., without incurring a situation of water shortage perceived by the users. An effective planning and management of water resources enables such systems to wisely exploit the combined storage capacities of surface and groundwater reserves and restrain drought (Rijsberman, 2006;Haro et al, 2014a). On the other hand, operational drought indexes are often designed to operate analyses over coarse spatiotemporal resolutions, thus being unsuitable for real-time basin-level drought detection, characterization, and management.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Each river basin authority has designed its customized formulation for the state index which reflects the hydroclimatic conditions and the water uses of the region (Estrela and Vargas, 2012). The value of the state indexes is monitored monthly and used to trigger water demand and supply measures when entering a drought period, according to the district drought management plan (Garrote et al, 2007;Gómez and Blanco, 2012;Haro et al, 2014a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems

Zaniolo

Giuliani

Castelletti

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Socio-economic costs of drought are progressively increasing worldwide due to undergoing alterations of hydro-meteorological regimes induced by climate change. Although drought management is largely studied in the literature, traditional drought indexes often fail at detecting critical events in highly regulated systems, where natural water availability is conditioned by the operation of water infrastructures such as dams, diversions, and pumping wells. Here, ad hoc index formulations are usually adopted based on empirical combinations of several, supposed-to-be significant, hydro-meteorological variables. These customized formulations, however, while effective in the design basin, can hardly be generalized and transferred to different contexts. In this study, we contribute FRIDA (FRamework for Index-based Drought Analysis), a novel framework for the automatic design of basin-customized drought indexes. In contrast to ad hoc empirical approaches, FRIDA is fully automated, generalizable, and portable across different basins. FRIDA builds an index representing a surrogate of the drought conditions of the basin, computed by combining all the relevant available information about the water circulating in the system identified by means of a feature extraction algorithm. We used the Wrapper for Quasi-Equally Informative Subset Selection (W-QEISS), which features a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to find Pareto-efficient subsets of variables by maximizing the wrapper accuracy, minimizing the number of selected variables, and optimizing relevance and redundancy of the subset. The preferred variable subset is selected among the efficient solutions and used to formulate the final index according to alternative model structures. We apply FRIDA to the case study of the Jucar river basin (Spain), a drought-prone and highly regulated Mediterranean water resource system, where an advanced drought management plan relying on the formulation of an ad hoc "state index" is used for triggering drought management measures. The state index was constructed empirically with a trial-and-error process begun in the 1980s and finalized in 2007, guided by the experts from the Confederación Hidrográfica del Júcar (CHJ). Our results show that the automated variable selection outcomes align with CHJ's 25-year-long empirical refinement. In addition, the resultant FRIDA index outperforms the official State Index in terms of accuracy in reproducing the target variable and cardinality of the selected inputs set.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems

Zaniolo

Giuliani

Castelletti

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Sci. water resources system is in place to wisely exploit storage capacities combined with surface and groundwater reserves (Rijsberman, 2006;Haro et al, 2014a). On the other hand, operational drought indexes are often designed to operate analysis over coarse spatiotemporal resolutions, thus resulting unsuitable for a real time basin level drought detection, characterization, and management.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The variables and weights are chosen in order to obtain an integrated 110 indicator representative of the hydrological status in each river basin (Estrela and Vargas, 2012). The value of the State Index is monitored monthly and used to trigger water demand and supply measures when entering a drought period according to the Drought Management Plans (DMPs) established in each Spanish river basin district (Garrote et al, 2007;Gómez and Blanco, 2012;Haro et al, 2014a) as a result of a long collaborative process including public participation, and providing an effective 115 multi-sector partnership approach for managing drought risk (Carmona et al, 2017).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems

Zaniolo¹,

Giuliani²,

Castelletti³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Socio-economic costs of drought are progressively increasing worldwide due to undergoing alterations of hydro-meteorological regimes induced by climate change. Although drought management is largely studied in the literature, traditional drought indexes often fail in detecting critical events in highly regulated systems, where natural water availability is conditioned by the operations of water infrastructures such as dams, diversions, and pumping wells. Here, ad hoc index 5 formulations are usually adopted based on empirical combinations of several, supposed-to-be significant, hydro-meteorological variables. These customized formulations, however, while effective in the design basin, can hardly be generalized and transferred to different contexts. In this study, we contribute FRIDA (FRamework for Index-based Drought Analysis), a novel framework for the automatic design of basin-customized drought indexes. In contrast to ad-hoc, empirical approaches, 10FRIDA is fully-automated, generalizable, and portable across different basins. FRIDA builds an index representing a surrogate of the drought conditions of the basin, computed by combining all the relevant available information about the water circulating in the system identified by means of a feature extraction algorithm. We used the Wrapper for Quasi Equally Informative Subset Selection (W-QEISS), which features a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm to find Pareto-efficient subsets 15 of variables by maximizing the wrapper accuracy, minimizing the number of selected variables, and optimizing relevance and redundancy of the subset. The preferred variable subset is selected among the efficient solutions and used to formulate the final index according to alternative model structures. We apply FRIDA to the case study of the Jucar river basin (Spain), a drought prone, highly regulated Mediterranean water system, where an advanced drought management plan relying on the 20

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“…The use of such systems allows developing and using real time management models able to assess the risk of drought, and the effectiveness of proactive and reactive measures applied on regular basis for the management of river basins (Merabtene et al 2002;Pallotino et al 2005;Andreu et al 2009 and. DSSs also permit the monitoring of drought by evaluating the different indicators and drought indices defined for the studied river basin (Haro et al 2014).…”

Section: Chapter 1: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Methodology for the optimal management design of water resources system under hydrologic uncertainty

Haro-Monteagudo¹

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La incertidumbre es una posición incómoda. Pero la certeza es una posición absurdaFrançois Marie Arouet, "Voltaire" Sin agua, nada somos. Hasta un emperador, privado de agua, se vería pronto reducido a polvo. El agua es el auténtico monarca y todos somos sus esclavos.Salman Rushdie, La encantadora de Florencia v AgradecimientosEn primer lugar a mis directores de tesis, Abel y Joaquín, por brindarme la oportunidad, hace ya más de cinco años, de entrar en el mundo de la investigación. Sin esa llamada telefónica días después de presentar mi proyecto final de carrera todo habría seguido un curso completamente distinto.Agradecer también al Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación, primero, y al Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, después, por la financiación recibida a través de la beca FPI BES-2010-034595 asociada al proyecto INTEGRAME.Gracias a los revisores de la tesis, Luis Garrote, Bonifacio Fernández y María Máñez por las positivas evaluaciones y por sus sugerencias que ayudaron a mejorar la forma final de la tesis.A los pececillos que han nadado junto a mí todos estos años en el micro clima de 'La Pecera' (incluidos los sediciosos de 'La Pecera Norte'). A los que están: Andrea, Néstor, Edgar, María, Mario, Coco, Antonio, Héctor, Jesús, Ana y Alberto. Sí, a los peces pequeños también os incluyo aunque acabéis de llegar. Y gracias adicionales Andrea por la revisión del valenciano. Y a los que se fueron: Myky, Melina, Ana, Zohara, Ana Fe, César, Lenin, y Anahí. Por supuesto, no puedo olvidarme de Jessica, Adrián y Javier que, sin ser miembros natos del cardumen, siempre han nadado junto a nosotros.También quiero darle las gracias a los demás miembros del Grupo de Ingeniería de Recursos Hídricos: Javier Paredes, Carlos Segura, Manuel vi Pulido, Miguel Ángel Pérez por haberme ayudado, de una manera u otra, a lo largo de estos años. También quiero extender este agradecimiento a los miembros de secretaría del Departamento de Ingeniería Hidráulica y Medio Ambiente: Merche, Rosa y Javier, por ayudarme con las gestiones que he tenido que realizar. Perdón también por las molestias ocasionadas, en especial aquellas relacionadas con calentar la comida todos los días a las 13:30, donde entramos toda la marabunta a usar los microondas. Y gracias a Carlos García, Vicente Montes y Diana Pastor, por lo mismo que a los tres anteriores, aunque sin las disculpas del microondas.Saliendo de la universidad, también es importante agradecer un trocito de esta tesis a otras personas que, en mayor o menor medida, me han ayudado a mantener la línea de flotación durante todo este tiempo.A quienes me aguantaron en Nebraska seis meses e hicieron que me sintiera como en casa: Cristina, Heather, Ramón, Roy, Carlos, Levy, Luis, Marta, Paloma, Jill, Anna, Erika, Paul… y toda la gente que pude conocer.Alejandro, gracias por ayudarme con el diseño de la portada. ResumenUn sistema de gestión de sequías apropiado requiere de la anticipación de los posibles efectos que un episodio de este tipo tenga sobre el sistema de recursos hídricos. Esta tarea s...

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Methodology for Drought Risk Assessment in Within-year Regulated Reservoir Systems. Application to the Orbigo River System (Spain)

Cited by 25 publications

References 14 publications

Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems

Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems

Automatic design of basin-specific drought indexes for highly regulated water systems

Methodology for the optimal management design of water resources system under hydrologic uncertainty

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