Methodology for land use change scenario assessment for runoff impacts: A case study in a north-western European Loess belt region (Pays de Caux, France)

Ronfort, Céline; Souchère, Véronique; Martin, Philippe; Sebillotte, Clementina; Castellazzi, Marie; Barbottin, Aude; Meynard, Jean-Marc; Laignel, Benoı̂t

doi:10.1016/j.catena.2011.02.004

Cited by 19 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…However, it is difficult to evaluate the impact of land use changes on water quality at the watershed level due to the complex interactions among topography, soil characteristics, climatic conditions, and farming practices. Scenario analysis studies within integrated models have been used to investigate the impact of land use change scenarios on hydrological and biophysical processes (Claessens et al, 2009; Ronfort et al, 2011; Stolte et al, 2005). …”

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confidence: 99%

Land Use Change Impacts on Water Quality in Three Lake Winnipeg Watersheds

et al. 2014

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Lake Winnipeg eutrophication results from excess nutrient loading due to agricultural activities across the watershed. Estimating nonpoint-source pollution and the mitigation effects of beneficial management practices (BMPs) is an important step in protecting the water quality of streams and receiving waters. The use of computer models to systematically compare different landscapes and agricultural systems across the Red-Assiniboine basin has not been attempted at watersheds of this size in Manitoba. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool was applied and calibrated for three pilot watersheds of the Lake Winnipeg basin. Monthly flow calibration yielded overall satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), with values above 0.7 for all simulations. Total phosphorus (TP) calibration NSE ranged from 0.64 to 0.76, total N (TN) ranged from 0.22 to 0.75, and total suspended solids (TSS) ranged from 0.29 to 0.68. Based on the assessment of the TP exceedance levels from 1993 to 2007, annual loads were above proposed objectives for the three watersheds more than half of the time. Four BMP scenarios based on land use changes were studied in the watersheds: annual cropland to hay land (ACHL), wetland restoration (WR), marginal annual cropland conversion to hay land (MACHL), and wetland restoration on marginal cropland (WRMAC). Of these land use change scenarios, ACHL had the greatest impact: TSS loads were reduced by 33 to 65%, TN by 58 to 82%, and TP by 38 to 72% over the simulation period. By analyzing unit area and percentage of load reduction, the results indicate that the WR and WRMAC scenarios had a significant impact on water quality in high loading zones in the three watersheds. Such reductions of sediment, N, and P are possible through land use change scenarios, suggesting that land conservation should be a key component of any Lake Winnipeg restoration strategy.

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Land Use Change Impacts on Water Quality in Three Lake Winnipeg Watersheds

et al. 2014

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“…In this part we will briefly run through the main features of both the initial scenario and its environmental assessment as they are presented in detail in Ronfort et al (2011). We also present the scenario variation that we used for this paper.…”

Section: Presentation Of the Scenarios For 2015 And Their Environmental Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The scenarios were constructed using the SYSPAHMM foresight method (Sebillotte and Sebillotte, 2010;Ronfort et al, 2011). The subject under consideration was the evolution of cropping systems.…”

Section: Presentation Of the Scenarios For 2015 And Their Environmental Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…CAP), at the local level. In considering a predefined scenario of changes by 2015 and a first environmental assessment of this scenario (Ronfort et al, 2011), we have two objectives. First, we want to quantify the costs for local communities wishing to create incentives to change agricultural practices in order to counter the initial scenario.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cost of best management practices to combat agricultural runoff and comparison with the local populations’ willingness to pay: Case of the Austreberthe watershed (Normandy, France)

Martin

Ronfort

Laroutis³

et al. 2014

Land Use Policy

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Land Use and Cover Changes (LUCCs) significantly increase the frequency of mudflows in the silty areas of north-western Europe and particularly in the NUTS 3 Seine-Maritime region (France). Predicting the effects of a range of possible LUCCs helps local authorities choose policies that can help to mitigate the risks to which local populations are exposed. In this article we build scenarios for changes in farming systems, with a 2015 horizon and with 2007 as the initial situation. These scenarios are assessed through combined biophysical and economic approaches. Two scenarios for the disappearance of dairy farming are chosen. One scenario has no public-action program (StopMilk), while the other one has a program based on the funding of best management practices (StopMilk-E). These scenarios are assessed at the small watershed scale (7 km 2 ) in terms of both changes in farming systems and effects on runoff (use of the STREAM model). Finally, the economic evaluation of additional costs of StopMilk-E is extrapolated at the level of the Austreberthe watershed syndicate (214 km 2 ), using the French Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) with a spatially referenced database of cropping plans. StopMilk leads to a significant increase in runoff whereas the local public-action program proposed under StopMilk-E reduces runoff to below the 2007 level. The Austreberthe watershed residents' willingness to pay for a 15-year program is around D 395,000/year, which is not sufficient to balance the cost of the modified farming practices (D 640,000/year over the first 3 years). Funding of the practices would require either subsidies from a higher level (Europe), borrowing by the community, and/or a more selective approach in the type and the location of farming practices to be funded. The method used for calculating costs at the watershed syndicate level shows the huge potential of new databases like LPIS (available in France since 2006) for the assessment of environmental issues.

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“…L'agronomie a dans ce domaine un bon capital d'expérience, du fait de son compagnonnage avec le développement agricole, au Sud comme au Nord. La forme à travers laquelle s'exprime le plus classiquement cette contribution est l'élaboration participative de scénarios (Bouarfa et al, 2011 ;Ronfort et al, 2011 ;Leenhardt et al, 2012 ;Sausse et al, 2013), correspondant à différentes variantes quant à la nature et à la répartition spatiale des systèmes de culture, la provenance des ressources utilisées pour l'irrigation ou la fertilisation, voire la destination des résidus de culture ou effluents d'élevage. Un degré d'élaboration supplémentaire de cette contribution est atteint en greffant sur les scénarios un module d'évaluation multicritères.…”

Section: éLaboration De Dispositifs Et Procédures De Décision Collectiveunclassified

Agronomy, land, and territory: Working on and for territorial development, the stakes for agronomy

Boiffin¹,

Benoît²,

Bail³

et al. 2014

Cahiers Agricultures

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Methodology for land use change scenario assessment for runoff impacts: A case study in a north-western European Loess belt region (Pays de Caux, France)

Cited by 19 publications

References 45 publications

Land Use Change Impacts on Water Quality in Three Lake Winnipeg Watersheds

Land Use Change Impacts on Water Quality in Three Lake Winnipeg Watersheds

Cost of best management practices to combat agricultural runoff and comparison with the local populations’ willingness to pay: Case of the Austreberthe watershed (Normandy, France)

Agronomy, land, and territory: Working on and for territorial development, the stakes for agronomy

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