Methodology of Foresight-Analysis in Forecasting the Development of International Trade

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the systemic principles of implementation of foresight-analysis of international trade as a method of strategic forecasting at the macro level, the formation of its methodological tools and implementation models. Methodology. The article used general and special research methods. Classification of types of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade and their characteristics, the formation of a set of factors influencing it was based on grouping, synthesis and formalization. Economic modeling, scientific abstraction, systems analysis were used in building a model of foresight-analysis of international trade and identified the factors of negative impact on it. Using the method of coefficients, structural analysis and analytical comparison offers groups of economic indicators of foreign trade to analyze the development of international trade in the preparatory stage of foresight-analysis. Results. It is established that the system of classifications of foresight-analysis allows its application not only at the national level of forecasting the development of trade, but also internationally. It is revealed that when applying the methodology of foresight-analysis of international trade development it is necessary to take into account the purposeful influence of endogenous and exogenous factors. The model of providing the methodology of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade is structured, which includes the following components: system methodology, strategic guidelines, information and analytical support, implementation process and a set of methodological tools. It is found that the combined application of methods (quantitative, qualitative, mixed) in the foresight-analysis of the development of international trade provides maximum efficiency. The addition of the structure of economic methods of foresight-analysis by a group of economic indicators that assess the level of development of foreign trade of a country is substantiated and proposed. Practical implementation. Formation of methodological tools and models for the implementation of foresight-analysis of the development of international trade, taking into account the specifics of foreign trade policy of states based on a consolidated group of economic indicators. Value/originality. The proposed groups of economic indicators can be used in the decomposition of methods of foresight-analysis of international trade to confirm the effectiveness of strategic directions of foreign trade policy and sound forecasting of its effectiveness in the future.