Methodology of probabilistic modelling of the current activity of industrial enterprises

Abstract

The article discusses the approach to the methodology of modeling and forecasting the production activities of industrial enterprises. It uses mathematical probability theory. All the studies are made by the example of the furniture industry enterprises. This approach enables to carry out effective planning of production and commercial activities. It also contributes to an increase in the effectiveness of marketing activities and decision making. The presented results have been achieved through the use of mathematical models and tools based on the application of the approach to defining the probability of non-zero demand for the goods. The developed mathematical models make it possible to prepare the initial data and make effective management decisions based on them in the form of plans and programs of industrial activities in a quick manner. The enterprises producing goods or providing services in a large assortment are forced to conduct a comparative mathematical analysis of the business units of the industrial enterprise in order to make a decision on the distribution of investment resources. The priority field of enterprise activity (which brings the maximum profit) receives the maximum financial investments.

Model for assessing the financing of innovative infrastructure of timber enterprises

“…The feasibility of a project to form an innovative infrastructure should strive for the maximum level of optimality and reliability. To fulfill the tasks set, the required number (from three to five) of potential executors with the highest indicators of financial stability and economically stable over the past 3 years is being selected [4,5,6].…”

An approach to assessing the level of competitiveness of a timber industry innovative enterprise based on the methodology of economic and mathematical modelling

“…Based on the foregoing, in the course of the study, the coefficient of innovative optimality was proposed, which is calculated as the ratio of the indicator of the level of innovative development of the analysed timber enterprise individually to a similar indicator, but taking into account the position of the timber enterprise in the competitive market. The calculation of the coefficient of innovative optimality, taking into account the occupied commodity market niche in the competitive market, is carried out according to the formula (1) [3]:…”

“…-Is the value of the annual revenue from sales of manufactured commercial products of the i,j,e-th indicator, taking into account the position of the enterprise in the market niche it occupies [3];…”

“…In the evaluation process, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the value of the coefficient of the level of competitiveness should tend to the highest criterion value [3]. Accordingly, a value in the range from 0 to 1 indicates a low level of competitiveness of the forestry innovative enterprise, provided that the value of the criterion coefficient for assessing the level of competitiveness is close to or equal to 1, then the level of competitiveness of the enterprise is at the level of selected enterprises in the sample [10].…”

Sustainable Development of the Forestry Complex in a Circular Economy (On the Example of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation)

“…В этом направлении прослеживается вектор, направленный на продолжение работы над нормативной документацией, регламентирующей лесное хозяйство в странах союзниках, в рамках СНГ. Данные дополнения позволят уточнить принятый 15 ноября 2003 года «Модельный лесной кодекс для стран -членов СНГ» и определить порядок взаимодействия союзных государств в области лесных отношений [2].…”