Methods for assessing public health vulnerability to global climate change

Ja, Patz; Jm, Balbus

doi:10.3354/cr006113

Cited by 38 publications

(25 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…In conventional risk assessment, a threshold refers to a sudden change in the slope of the dose-response curve (Patz & Balbus 1996). For example, the differences in regional sensitivity to heat-related mortality necessitate separate analyses for each city in the present study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and mortality in Australia: retrospective study, 1979-1990, and predicted impacts in five major cities in 2030

Guest¹,

Willson²,

Woodward³

et al. 1999

Clim. Res.

103

109

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Quantitative assessment of climatic and environmental health risks is necessary because changes in climate are expected. We therefore aimed to quantify the relationship between climatic extremes and mortality in the 5 largest Australian cities during the period [1979][1980][1981][1982][1983][1984][1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990]. We then applied the relationship determined between recent climatic conditions and mortality to scenarios for climate and demographic change, to predict potential impacts on public health in the cities in the year 2030. Data on mortality, denominator population and climate were obtained. The expected numbers of deaths per day in each city were calculated. Observed daily deaths were compared with expected rates according to temperature thresholds. Mortality was also examined in association with temporal synoptic indices (TSI) of climate, developed by principal component and cluster analysis. According to observed-expected threshold analyses, for the 5 cities combined, the annual mean excess of deaths attributable to temperature over the period [1979][1980][1981][1982][1983][1984][1985][1986][1987][1988][1989][1990] was 175 for the 28°C threshold. This sum of statistically significant differences from the 5 cities was the greatest excess found in association with any threshold considered in the range of temperatures that occur. Excess mortality for the hottest days in summer was greater than for the coldest days in winter. Temperature-mortality relationships were little modified by socio-economic status. TSI analyses produced similar results: using this method, the climate-attributable mortality in the 5 cities was approximately 160 deaths yr -1 , although this number was evenly distributed across summer and winter. Persons in the group aged 65 yr and older were the most vulnerable. After allowing for increases in population, and combining all age groups, the synoptic method showed a 10% reduction in mortality in the year 2030. We conclude that the 5 largest Australian cities exhibit climate-attributable mortality in both summer and winter. Given the scenarios of regional warming during the next 3 decades, the expected changes in mortality due to direct climatic effects in these major coastal Australian cities are minor.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and mortality in Australia: retrospective study, 1979-1990, and predicted impacts in five major cities in 2030

Guest¹,

Willson²,

Woodward³

et al. 1999

Clim. Res.

103

109

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The relationship between global climate change and human health is quite complex and difficult to model (Patz and Balbus 1996). The methods for assessing the vulnerability of human health included identification and mapping of sensitive populations and pertinent diseases within the country's borders, assessing correlation between hot humid air masses and mortality, and the integrated modelling of vector-borne diseases in the context of climate, ecosystem and societal change (Martens 1996).…”

Section: Human Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Higher temperatures would make the climate suitable for the survival of malaria-carrying mosquitoes. In contrast, higher temperatures would also reduce risks of health problems related to cold, such as cardiovascular mortality (Patz and Balbus 1996). Zambian analyses reveal that malaria, bilharzia/schistosomiasis, cholera, dysentery, bubonic plague, and malnutrition could be exacerbated by global climate change.…”

Section: Human Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untitled

Dixon¹,

Smith

Guill

2003

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

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Abstract. Donor countries are providing financial and technical support for global climate change country studies to help African nations meet their reporting needs under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Technical assistance to complete vulnerability and adaptation assessments includes training of analysts, sharing of contemporary tools (e.g. simulation models), data and assessment techniques, information-sharing workshops and an international exchange programme for analysts. This chapter summarizes 14 African country studies (Botswana, Côte d'Ivoire, Egypt, Ethiopia, the Gambia, Kenya, Malawi, Mauritius, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe) assessing vulnerabilities to global climate change and identifying adaptation options. The analysis revealed that the participating African countries are vulnerable to global climate change in more than one of the following socio-economic sectors: coastal resources, agriculture, grasslands and livestock, water resources, forests, wildlife, and human health. This vulnerability is exacerbated by widespread poverty, recurrent droughts, inequitable land distribution, environmental degradation, natural resource mismanagement and dependence on rain-fed agriculture. A range of practical adaptation options were identified in key socio-economic sectors of the African nations analysed. However, underdeveloped human and institutional capacity, as well as the absence of adequate infrastructure, renders many traditional coping strategies (rooted in political and economic stability) ineffective or insufficient. Future African country studies should be more closely coordinated with development of national climate change action plans

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“…The BEHI project is committed to investigating linkages between the condition of the physical environment and environmental and health issues and in the west, researchers are currently studying contaminants in the SCW [61]. For example, we propose to investigate the association between temperature increases and heat stress and cardiorespiratory failure in humans; air pollution and aeroallergens with respiratory diseases (e.g., asthma), changes in water resources and vector-borne diseases (e.g., malaria, dengue, encephalitis, hantavirus, Rift Valley Fever) food shortages and human physical and mental health (e.g., malnutrition, diarrhea) [62].…”

Section: Human Healthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developing an Ecosystem Services Online Decision Support Tool to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change and Urban Growth in the Santa Cruz Watershed; Where We Live, Work, and Play

et al. 2010

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Using respective strengths of the biological, physical, and social sciences, we are developing an online decision support tool, the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), to help promote the use of information relevant to water allocation and land management in a binational watershed along the U.S.-Mexico border. The SCWEPM will include an ES valuation system within a suite of linked regional driver-response models and will use a multicriteria scenario-evaluation framework that builds on GIS analysis and spatially-explicit models that characterize important ecological, economic, and societal endpoints and consequences that are sensitive to climate patterns, regional water budgets, and regional LULC change in the SCW. OPEN ACCESSSustainability 2010, 2 2045

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Methods for assessing public health vulnerability to global climate change

Cited by 38 publications

References 19 publications

Climate and mortality in Australia: retrospective study, 1979-1990, and predicted impacts in five major cities in 2030

Climate and mortality in Australia: retrospective study, 1979-1990, and predicted impacts in five major cities in 2030

Untitled

Developing an Ecosystem Services Online Decision Support Tool to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change and Urban Growth in the Santa Cruz Watershed; Where We Live, Work, and Play

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