Methods for estimating no‐effect toxicity concentrations in ecotoxicology

Abstract

A range of new statistical approaches is being developed and/or adopted in ecotoxicology that, when combined, can greatly improve the estimation of no‐effect toxicity values from concentration–response (CR) experimental data. In particular, we compare the existing no‐effect‐concentration (NEC) threshold‐based toxicity metric with an alternative no‐significant‐effect‐concentration (NSEC) metric suitable for when CR data do not show evidence of a threshold effect. Using a model‐averaging approach, these metrics can be combined to yield estimates of N(S)EC and of their uncertainty within a single analysis framework. The outcome is a framework for CR analysis that is robust to uncertainty in the model formulation, and for which resulting estimates can be confidently integrated into risk assessment frameworks, such as the species sensitivity distribution (SSD). Integr Environ Assess Manag 2023;00:1–15. © 2023 Commonwealth of Australia and The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).