Methods for Estimation of Multiplier Effect of Investments in Development of Infrastructure of Inland Water Transport in the Russian Federation in the Frameworks of Federal Target Programs

Abstract

The offered method for estimation of influence of investments in development of infrastructure of inland waterways provided by Transport strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 and Federal target program "The development of transportation system of the Russian Federation (2010-2020s)" on growth of economy of Russia allows estimating the integral multiplier effect. In the study there are methodological approaches and estimations of multiplier effect of investments in realization of number of major investment projects for liquidation of limiting sites on Single Deep-Water System (SDWS) of European part of Russia with use of transport and production multipliers. The offered method provides detalization of economic effect when forecasting and control for realization of Federal target programs on water transport. The mechanism of estimation of branch effect offered by authors is detailed in sources of gaining economic growth in a branch (the direct and indirect branch effect) and allied branches that helps to get the notion of objectives and forecasts of their development for the period of program validity and subsequent period of objects' operation. There is also a graphic structural diagram that provides considering the structure of multiplier effect and following the interrelation of indicators-the estimation elements. The offered algorithm of estimation of single multiplier effect elements provides discerning the sequence and the way of estimation of main effectiveness indicators of Federal target programs. In the paper there are also the results of estimation by offered diagram with use of software on the data of Federal target program "Development of transportation system of the Russian Federation (2010-2020s)" and Transport strategy of the Russian Federation for the period up to 2030 designed by the authors. Using the results of estimations we have also performed the quantitative estimation of multiplier effect of investments in liquidation of limiting sites on SDWS that makes up 1295 bln. rbs.

The development of transport infrastructure development projects

“…Having analyzed the advantages and disadvantages of these methods, the authors concluded that the lack of a single integrated method of project evaluation and selection makes it impossible to build an orderly system for project implementation and impedes the uniform development of transport infrastructure, which gives rise to shortcomings in the project management system: there is no single coordination center, as a result of which each region chooses its own policy instruments in the field of transport. The methods used for assessing and selecting projects for the development of transport infrastructure do not take into account their specifics, as well as the issues of goal setting and the specifics of interaction with related industries [17]. Therefore, our proposed method of multi-criteria assessment and selection was developed taking into account the indicated disadvantages.…”