Methods for Exploring Uncertainty in Groundwater Management Predictions

Abstract

Models of groundwater systems help to integrate knowledge about the natural and human system covering different spatial and temporal scales, often from multiple disciplines, in order to address a range of issues of concern to various stakeholders. A model is simply a tool to express what we think we know. Uncertainty, due to lack of knowledge or natural variability, means that there are always alternative models that may need to be considered. This chapter provides an overview of uncertainty in models and in the definition of a problem to model, highlights approaches to communicating and using predictions of uncertain outcomes and summarises commonly used methods to explore uncertainty in groundwater management predictions. It is intended to raise awareness of how alternative models and hence uncertainty can be explored in order to facilitate the integration of these techniques with groundwater management.

Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling

“…Recently, there has been growing attention to the development of frameworks for considering uncertainty in a more holistic manner (e.g. Beven, 2016;Guillaume et al, 2016;Maier et al, 2016). These efforts have contributed to improving our conceptual understanding of uncertainty by focusing on:…”

Effective modeling for Integrated Water Resource Management: A guide to contextual practices by phases and steps and future opportunities

“…There are many ways to assess and describe uncertainty in the predictions (Guzman et al 2015); the best representation will depend on the context in which the IWRM problem operates, and the requirements and understanding of the stakeholders (Hunt 2017). In IWRM, where cost-benefit trade-offs are often assessed, a more quantitative approach to characterizing uncertainty can be valuable (Guillaume et al 2016). Most straightforward is a simple reporting of model predictions under a few specific conditions (e.g., streamflow depletion, land use practices, water allocations or environmental flow releases under drought and wet conditions).…”

Out of Sight, Not Out of Mind: Developments in Economic Models of Groundwater Management

“…However, the increasing complexity of models leaves researchers with the thorny task of communicating uncertain results in a way that provides usable insights to policy makers and to the public. Guillaume et al (2016) provides valuable guidance by covering various aspects: the model setup ("modelers and stakeholders need to work together to define a problem, in a manner cognizant of the uncertainty involved", pg. 716); the need for wide participation and for iteration; the methods to generate alternative model realizations; advice on the representation of uncertain outcomes, namely on choosing different levels of detail, from single outcomes (for example, averages), to distributions, to bounds (best and worst cases), to scenarios, to spelling out points of ignorance; and finally, communication, reminding us that "a groundwater scientist cannot expect that those needing to use the estimates will understand the academic terms and metrics.…”