Methods Used in the Ussr for Estimating Potential Petroleum Resources

Semenovich, V. V.; Buyalov, N. I.; Kramarenko, V. N.; Конторович, А Э; Kuznetsov, Yu. Ya.; Maksimov, S. P.; Modelevsky, M.S.; Нестеров, И. И.

doi:10.1016/b978-0-08-021735-2.50017-3

Cited by 3 publications

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“…The resulting estimates are compared to the model and systematic biases are identified. In this preliminary investigation, two estimation methods are analyzed: M. K. Hubbert's "life cycle" approach (Hubbert 1956(Hubbert , 1962(Hubbert , 1974 and the "geologic analogy" method used by the USGS (Zapp 1962, Hendricks 1965, USGS 1975 and others (Energy, Mines, and Resources Bureau (Canada) 1977, Jones 1975, Semenovich et al 1977. In general, there are two polar responses to the rising pattern of estimates.…”

Section: D-3432mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Approach A wide variety of estimation techniques currently exist, including life cycle (Hubbert 1956(Hubbert , 1962(Hubbert , 1974Ryan 1966;Wiorkowski 1981), rate of effort (Hubbert 1974), geologic analogy (Zapp 1962, USGS 1975, Semenovich et al 1977, econometric (Khazzoom 1971, MacAvoy andPindyck 1973), and discovery process methods (Arps and Roberts 1958, Ryan 1973, Barouch and D-3432 6 Kaufman 1977. The techniques range from the basin and play level to continental and global aggregation, from detailed structural and process models to curve-fitting.…”

Section: ) Who Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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An experiment to evaluate methods for estimating fossil fuel resources

Sterman

Richardson

1985

Journal of Forecasting

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Estimates of petroleum and natural gas resources vary substantially, both over time and across estimation methods. This paper develops a simulation model of global oil resources to evaluate different resource estimation techniques. Protocols for the Hubbert life cycle and USGS geological analogy methods are developed and applied to synthetic data generated by the model. It is shown that the Hubbert method can generate an accurate estimate as early as twenty years before the peak of global production, but the geological analogy approach overestimates the true resource base over the life cycle of the resource. The results show the applicability of simulation and the synthetic data approach to the problem of evaluating forecasting methods.

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Section: D-3432mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: ) Who Statesmentioning

confidence: 99%

An experiment to evaluate methods for estimating fossil fuel resources

Sterman

Richardson

1985

Journal of Forecasting

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“…Major references include Bishop and others (1983), Conybeare (1965), Kontorovich (1950Kontorovich ( , 1976Kontorovich ( , 1984, and Neruchev (1964 …”

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confidence: 99%

Annotated bibliography of methodology for assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources

1995

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An annotated bibliography of methodology of assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources is presented as a useful reference for those engaged in resource assessment. The articles that are included deal only with quantitative assessment of undiscovered or inferred resources. The articles in this bibliography are classified largely according to the major assessment method that was applied in each situation. Major assessment methods include areal and volumetric yield methods, field size distributions, historical extrapolation, deposit modeling, organic geochemical mass balance methods, and direct expert assessment. Other categories include mathematical tools, reserve growth/confirmation, quantitative characterization of undiscovered resources, and general topics. For the purpose of future updates, we solicit contributions of articles that may have been missed in the preparation of this bibliography.

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“…8) is a special form of volumetric yield that deals with the fundamentals of petroleum generation, migration, and entrapment. The Russians (e.g., Neruchev, 1962;Semenovich et al, 1977) have been working on this method since 1936, and McDowell (1975) has illustrated its use. Halbouty and Hardin (1959) and Conybeare (1963) gave examples of the concepts of hydrocarbon generation and drainage areas.…”

Section: Geochemical Materials Balancementioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Russians (e.g., Belov, 1960;Semenovich et al, 1977) have used a similar approach, which they call the "average structure" method. The Canadians (Roy et al, 1975;Energy, Mines, and Resources Canada, 1977) have added the refinement of using a whole distribution of field sizes, rather than just the average.…”

Section: Success Ratio (Potential Fields-prospects)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Methods of Estimating Oil and Gas Resources

White

Gehman²

1979

Bulletin

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Abatraet Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas potentials can be made and presented in a probability format reflecting the inherent uncertainties and risks. A cumulative probability curve shows the chances of occurrence of possible hydrocarbon volumes, the risk that there Is little or no potential, the average or expected value, and the "highside" potential. Such a curve can be drawn directly as a delphic consensus of expert opinions. Preferably, however, a curve can be constructed by multiplying. In a Monte Carlo simulation, several factors whose product Is potential barrels of oil or cubic feet of gas. Each factor Is entered as a range of values whose spread depends on the uncertainties. An example Is the multiplication of the possible volumes of prospective sedimentary rock (e.g., in cubic miles) by their potential hydrocarbon yields (e.g., barrels per cubic mile). Other geologic approaches depend mainly on estimated volumes of subsurface hydrocarbon trap space, on areal yields, on geologic analogies with other producing areas, on summation of individual prospect assessments, on the numbers and sizes of potential fields, or on the geochemical material balance of hydrocarbons generated, migrated, and trapped. More purely statistical methods involving the extrapolation of past discovery rates can be used only in maturely explored areas where data are abundant.

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Methods Used in the Ussr for Estimating Potential Petroleum Resources

Cited by 3 publications

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An experiment to evaluate methods for estimating fossil fuel resources

An experiment to evaluate methods for estimating fossil fuel resources

Annotated bibliography of methodology for assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources

Methods of Estimating Oil and Gas Resources

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