Método numérico para la evaluación holística del riesgo sísmico utilizando la teoría de conjuntos difusos

Abstract

información del artículo Historia del artículo: Recibido el 10 de agosto de 2012 Aceptado el 29 de octubre de 2012 On-line el 27 de febrero de 2013 Palabras clave: Conjuntos difusos Inteligencia computacional Enfoque holístico Evaluación del riesgo Riesgo sísmico Vulnerabilidad socioeconómicar e s u m e n La teoría de conjuntos difusos ofrece un puente entre el procesamiento simbólico y el numérico que permite el uso de conceptos cualitativos útiles en el proceso de toma de decisiones relacionadas con la gestión del riesgo sísmico y, en general, con la gestión del riesgo de desastres. Su utilización en la evaluación del riesgo sísmico es necesaria en el caso en que los datos para aplicar un método de evaluación convencional del riesgo no estén disponibles o sean insuficientes. Una posible solución, considerada en este artículo, consiste en sustituir la información que falta por la opinión de expertos y en procesar las variables cualitativas y las calificaciones lingüísticas que se obtengan de dichas opiniones en lugar de valores numéricos. El procesamiento se realiza utilizando la teoría de conjuntos difusos. Para lograr una gestión eficaz, el riesgo se debe definir como las posibles consecuencias físicas, económicas, sociales y ambientales que pueden ocurrir en un período de tiempo determinado debido a fenómenos peligrosos. Desde esta perspectiva holística, y utilizando la teoría de conjuntos difusos, el método numérico propuesto calcula un nivel de riesgo físico y un nivel de agravamiento relacionado con las condiciones de fragilidad social y falta de resiliencia, para determinar un nivel de riesgo total. En el artículo se incluyen 2 ejemplos de aplicación del método propuesto y los resultados obtenidos se comparan con los correspondientes a un método convencional de evaluación holística. a b s t r a c tThe fuzzy set theory offers a bridge between the symbolic and numerical processing, allowing managing qualitative concepts useful in the decision-making process related to the seismic risk management and, in general, to the disaster risk management. Its use in the seismic risk evaluation is necessary in the cases where the data required to apply a conventional method of assessing risk are not available or are insufficient. One possible solution, considered in this article, is to replace the missing information by expert opinions and to process the resulting qualitative variables and linguistic qualifications instead of numerical values. This process is based on the fuzzy set theory. In order to achieve an effective management, the risk must be defined as the potential physical, economic, social and environmental consequences which occur due to hazards in a given period of time. From this holistic perspective and using the fuzzy set theory, the proposed numerical method calculates a level of the physical risk and level of the aggravating conditions related to social fragility and to the lack of resilience, to determine a total risk level. In the article are included two examples of application of the proposed met...

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