Metropolitan Expansion and Migrant Population: Correlation Patterns and Influencing Factors in Chengdu, China

Abstract

The ongoing urban spatial transformation contributes to a more intricate and varied spatiotemporal correlation pattern between metropolitan expansion and the migrant population. In this study, the coupled coordination model (CCD) is applied to enable the quantification of the spatiotemporal correlation index of metropolitan expansion and migrant population from 2010 to 2020. Moreover, various correlation patterns are identified in this research, and the multiscale geographical weighted regression model (MGWR) is employed to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of the influencing factors that contribute to this correlation. The research findings reveal the following insights: (1) The built-up areas increased twofold between 2010 and 2020, with an evident tendency toward southward expansion. In addition, population migration indicates slow migration in the inner metropolitan area and accelerated migration in the outer metropolitan area. The correlation between metropolitan expansion and migrant population follows a central–peripheral layer pattern that is characterized by a low-high-low progression. (2) While the balanced development of public services has somewhat decreased the differentiation patterns observed, the adjustments made to economic growth, employment, and residential markets have intensified the differentiation of spatiotemporal correlation characteristics between the metropolitan expansion and migrant population. (3) This study demonstrates that the Chengdu metropolitan area is transitioning from a rapid development stage driven by structuralism to a human-oriented new urbanization stage. This shift is evident through the clear stage pattern and central–peripheral layer features observed. Through the scientific planning of industry and public service layouts, the promotion of integration employment, residential markets, and the facilitation of urban–rural transformation can be achieved. Implementing these strategies can elevate the standard of human-oriented urban spatial governance, achieve coordinated and balanced development between built-up and residential spaces, and advance the high-quality, sustainable, and inclusive development of metropolitan areas.