Micro and macro population effects in disease transmission: the case of varicella

Silhol, Romain; Álvarez, Francisco Blanco; Arena, Christophe; Amoros, Jean Pierre; Flahault, Antoine; Hanslik, Thomas; Boëlle, Pierre‐Yves

doi:10.1017/s0950268809990896

Cited by 16 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Some studies have reported that living in urban areas, living in a large family (≥ 4 people) and children with more siblings are factors associated with higher varicella seroprevalence. Many studies have found no gender difference for varicella seroprevalence (2,3,16,17,(28)(29)(30). Consistent with the current study, varicella seroprevalence was not associated with household size, income, occupation and education in a population-based study in Izmir in 2009-2010 (16).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Seroprevalence and social determinants of varicella in Turkey

Hekimoğlu

Özbek

Emek

et al. 2018

East Mediterr Health J

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Seroprevalence and social determinants of varicella in Turkey

Hekimoğlu

Özbek

Emek

et al. 2018

East Mediterr Health J

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“…This probably reflects different country-specific dynamics in varicella transmission during childhood, which have been associated with differences in social mixing patterns [12, 13]. Countries with low incidence rates in children <5 years of age have higher incidence rates in older age groups.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Particularly, we built a linear regression model based on the incidences in the younger age groups and country-level prediction variables that have been shown to be associated with country-level differences in varicella transmissibility and health care use [12, 13] (Additional file 2): proportion of children <3 years that receive no formal childcare [14], population density [14], inequality in income distribution [14], proportion of people at risk of poverty [14], total health expenditure [15], proportion of households with 1, 2, 3, and 4 or more children [14], number of annual consultations of a medical doctor per inhabitant [14], and number of acute hospital discharges per 100 population [14]. …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation of the burden of varicella in Europe before the introduction of universal childhood immunization

et al. 2017

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BackgroundVaricella is generally considered a mild disease. Disease burden is not well known and country-level estimation is challenging. As varicella disease is not notifiable, notification criteria and rates vary between countries. In general, existing surveillance systems do not capture cases that do not seek medical care, and most are affected by underreporting and underascertainment. We aimed to estimate the overall varicella disease burden in Europe to provide critical information to support decision-making regarding varicella vaccination.MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature review to identify all available epidemiological data on varicella IgG antibody seroprevalence, primary care and hospitalisation incidence, and mortality. We then developed methods to estimate age-specific varicella incidence and annual number of cases by different levels of severity (cases in the community, health care seekers in primary care and hospitals, and deaths) for all countries belonging to the European Medicines Agency (EMA) region and Switzerland.ResultsIn the absence of universal varicella immunization, the burden of varicella would be substantial with a total of 5.5 million (95% CI: 4.7–6.4) varicella cases occurring annually across Europe. Variation exists between countries but overall the majority of cases (3 million; 95% CI: 2.7–3.3) would occur in children <5 years. Annually, 3–3.9 million patients would consult a primary care physician, 18,200–23,500 patients would be hospitalised, and 80 varicella-related deaths would occur (95% CI: 19–822).ConclusionsVaricella disease burden is substantial. Most cases occur in children <5 years old but adults require hospitalisation more often and are at higher risk of death. This information should be considered when planning and evaluating varicella control strategies. A better understanding of the driving factors of country-specific differences in varicella transmission and health care utilization is needed. Improving and standardizing varicella surveillance in Europe, as initiated by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), is important to improve data quality to facilitate inter-country comparison.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12879-017-2445-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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“…Other studies have described that anti-VZV seroprevalence may be related to household composition (≥ 4 persons) and school attendance by a household member [3,6,28-30] . However, in this study no association between anti-VZV seroprevalence and having children or the number of children was found.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seroprevalence of varicella-zoster virus and predictors for seronegativity in the Amsterdam adult population

et al. 2012

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BackgroundIn the Netherlands, infection with varicella-zoster virus (VZV) is considered a benign common childhood illness and routine vaccination against VZV is not done. In 1995 it was estimated that 98-100% of the adult Dutch general population is immune, yet the estimate is based on a database in which a relative small number of people of non-Dutch ethnic origin were represented. As the city of Amsterdam has large immigrant communities originating from various subtropical and tropical countries, such as Morocco, Surinam, and Turkey with probably lower VZV transmission, this study aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of VZV IgG antibodies (anti-VZV) among various ethnic groups in Amsterdam, and identify factors associated with seronegative VZV status.MethodsThe study was a cross-sectional survey of the Amsterdam population (2004), and the study sample was stratified by age and ethnicity, with deliberate oversampling of minority ethnic groups. Serum samples obtained from 1,341 residents in 2004 were tested for antibodies to VZV. Basic demographic data (gender, age, country of birth, age at immigration and number of children) were also available.ResultsThe anti-VZV seroprevalence in the overall Amsterdam population was estimated to be 94% (95% confidence intervals; 92–96%). Regarding ethnic origin, first generation immigrants (Moroccan immigrants 90%, Surinamese or Antillean immigrants 91%, and Turkish 92%), especially those that migrated after the age of 11 years, were more likely to be anti-VZV seronegative compared to those arriving at an earlier age or those born in the Netherlands (97–98%). Both ethnic origin and generation of immigration were positive predictors for IgG seronegativity to VZV (p<0.015). No other predictors for seronegativity were found.ConclusionThe results of this study imply that about 4–8% of the general adult Amsterdam population is still susceptible to infection with VZV, and that susceptibility is even higher in some immigrant groups. When assessing the risk of infection after VZV exposure alertness is needed for vulnerable persons like pregnant women, patients with hematological malignancies or organ transplants in particular among first-generation immigrants.

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Micro and macro population effects in disease transmission: the case of varicella

Cited by 16 publications

References 31 publications

Seroprevalence and social determinants of varicella in Turkey

Seroprevalence and social determinants of varicella in Turkey

Estimation of the burden of varicella in Europe before the introduction of universal childhood immunization

Seroprevalence of varicella-zoster virus and predictors for seronegativity in the Amsterdam adult population

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