2022
DOI: 10.1177/00223433221109621
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Micro-foundations of the commercial peace: The effect of net exports on Ukrainian attitudes towards war with Russia

Abstract: Most studies of the ‘commercial peace’ hypothesis – that trade increases the opportunity costs of war, making it less likely – assume the state has a unified interest with respect to trade. However, it is well-established that trade creates economic winners and losers within a country. Loss of export markets due to conflict imposes significant costs on local economies, but disruption of imports is often less costly, and potentially even beneficial. We posit that opposition to conflict should correlate with sub… Show more

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