Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan

Li, Baosheng; Zhou, Lei; Qin, Jianhuang; Zhou, Tianjun; Chen, Dake; Hou, Shugui; Murtugudde, Raghu

doi:10.1038/s41467-023-43463-0

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…A northward shift of the Somali Jet in response to the enhanced meridional temperature gradient between the Middle East and the southern Arabian Sea owing to a stronger surface heating (and resulting lower surface pressures) over the Middle East is also seen in spring, as highlighted in 128 . In the MENA region in particular, the air temperature has been increasing at a rate of about 0.04 K year −1 and the sea-level pressure has been dropping at about 0.016 hPa year −1 (Table 3 ), trends that are steeper than those seen elsewhere (Fig.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

Francis,

Fonseca

2024

Sci Rep

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Observational and reanalysis datasets reveal a northward shift of the convective regions over northern Africa in summer and an eastward shift in winter in the last four decades, with the changes in the location and intensity of the thermal lows and subtropical highs also modulating the dust loading and cloud cover over the Middle East and North Africa region. A multi-model ensemble from ten models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—sixth phase gives skillful simulations when compared to in-situ measurements and generally captures the trends in the ERA-5 data over the historical period. For the most extreme climate change scenario and towards the end of the twenty-first century, the subtropical highs are projected to migrate poleward by 1.5°, consistent with the projected expansion of the Hadley Cells, with a weakening of the tropical easterly jet in the summer by up to a third and a strengthening of the subtropical jet in winter typically by 10% except over the eastern Mediterranean where the storm track is projected to shift polewards. The length of the seasons is projected to remain about the same, suggesting the warming is likely to be felt uniformly throughout the year.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 94%

Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

Francis,

Fonseca

2024

Sci Rep

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“…Moreover, the significant difference in temperatures (> 2°C) between the two regimes is also evident over the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME) which is a prominent climate change hotspot 45 . The warming over these dry and desert regions are proposed to have enhanced the summer rainfall over Pakistan 46 . However, our focus is only over the Indian region in this study.…”

Section: Figure 1 Regime Shift During the Pre-monsoon Season (Mar-apr...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Northward shift of pre-monsoon winds exacerbating heatwaves over India

Mondal,

Jha,

Ghosh

et al. 2024

Preprint

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India has observed increasingly persistent heat extremes in recent decades, that pose environmental, agricultural, and human health challenges. North-Central India, a highly populated region prone to heatwaves, has experienced record maximum temperatures (>48°C) during the pre-monsoon season. While studies have shown positive trends in heatwaves due to rising air temperature during pre-monsoon season, we identify a shift in pre-monsoon mean daily maximum temperature over North-Central India, resulting in an increase in seasonal mean maximum temperature by 0.7°C post-1998. The jump in temperature is associated with a weakening of mid-tropospheric zonal winds as a result of a northward migration of the subtropical jet since 1998. Further, comparing the two regimes before and after the shift, we find that the frequency and duration of heatwaves have accelerated in the latter regime. We also observe that the recent increase in heatwaves is associated with an increase in negative vorticity indicating increasing anticyclonic circulations over North-Central India. These findings highlight that the exacerbation of heatwaves in North-Central India is primarily driven by atmospheric dynamical changes triggered by a regime shift, further compounded by global warming.

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“…Strong evidence indicates a growing trend in extreme precipitation in South Asia (Seneviratne et al 2021), along with an increase in the intensity and westward movement of the monsoon over Pakistan (Hanif et al 2013). The latest research suggests that warming land surface temperature in the Middle East region during spring contributes to summer precipitation in monsoon edge regions, such as Pakistan (Li et al 2023). Recent studies have shown that monsoon precipitation in Pakistan exhibits high spatial and temporal variability (Gadiwala andBurke 2013, Hanif et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of tropical sea surface temperature on extreme precipitation in Pakistan during the summer of 2022

Luo,

Liu,

Zhang

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Lett.

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In August 2022, Pakistan experienced an unprecedented precipitation event that caused significant damage. Analysis of the observations reveals that this extreme rainfall is primarily driven by anomalous atmospheric zonal advection, resulting in an anomalous water vapor concentration in Pakistan. The climatological meridional advection also contributes to this flooding. Anomalous easterly winds and low-level vertical convection combine to be critical factors contributing to the moisture concentration over the country. Further investigation identifies the air-sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and abnormal warming over the Arabian Sea are crucial factors influencing this extreme flooding event. The concurrent occurrence of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event and the warming sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the northern Arabian Sea intensifies the easterly winds over Pakistan, helping to transfer the anomalous water vapor from the remote region into Pakistan, ultimately contributing to the extreme flooding in 2022.

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Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan

Cited by 10 publications

References 36 publications

Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

Recent and projected changes in climate patterns in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

Northward shift of pre-monsoon winds exacerbating heatwaves over India

The impact of tropical sea surface temperature on extreme precipitation in Pakistan during the summer of 2022

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