Middle-Income Trap: The Case of Poland

Abstract

The middle-income trap (MIT) describes systemic growth obstacles shared by various countries that occur typically at the middle-income level of their development. The following analysis relies on Rostow's classification of the stages of economic development. We focus on Rostow stages three and four, where moving from labor intensive, import and foreign direct investment (FDI) driven growth to reliance on high value-added output and exports with embedded high content of capital and technology can render sustainable long-term growth problematic. To examine MIT we study Poland, which has relied on relatively low labor costs, imported technologies, funding from the European Union and FDI to attain middle-income status. A recent slowing in Poland's growth may signal that it has exhausted some of these growth factors and is more vulnerable to MIT. To assess this vulnerability, we analyze changes in Poland's factor productivity, investment patterns, FDI, labor force educational attainments, new technology/product development, imports, export diversification, product complexity, and other factors. We conclude that certain conditions consistent with MIT are gaining importance in Poland and represent a challenge to its future economic growth.

A Study on the Relationship between Developing Countries and the Middle-Income Trap: A Nar-rative in the Zambian Perspective

“…To assess this vulnerability, we analyze changes in Poland's factor productivity, investment patterns, FDI, labor force educational attainments, new technology/product development, imports, export diversification, product complexity, and other factors. We conclude that certain conditions consistent with MIT are gaining importance in Poland and represent a challenge to its future economic growth (Leven, 2019). Aviliani, Siregar, & Hasanah (2014) used descriptive statistics in their paper titled "Addressing the middle-income Trap: Experience of Indonesia and found that more than 30 countries were in MIT.…”

Az Aid for Trade és a közepes jövedelmű országok csapdája

“…Az elmúlt egy évtizedben több kutató vizsgálta a közepes jövedelmi csapdát, és számos javaslatot fogalmaztak meg az okairól és megoldásáról. A csapda kialaku-lásának okai vita tárgyát képezik (Leven, 2019), és meglehetősen sokrétűek (Aiyar et al, 2013;Glawe & Wagner, 2016;WEF, 2016;Wang et al, 2018;World Bank, 2012). Az okok meghatározásához hasonlóan a közepes jövedelmi csapdából való kijutás módjában sincs egységes álláspont.…”

“…Az okok meghatározásához hasonlóan a közepes jövedelmi csapdából való kijutás módjában sincs egységes álláspont. Abban azonban általános az egyetértés, hogy egy bizonyos szintű fenntartható gazdasági növekedés szükséges hozzá (Acheampong & Udvari, 2020;Leven, 2019). A gazdasági növekedést nagyszámú hazai és nemzetközi tényező befolyásolja (Todaro & Smith, 2015).…”

Aid for Trade and the Middle-Income Trap

“…However, Gill -Kharas (2015) posit that, although the endogenous growth theories and the Solow growth model were successful in addressing growth problems in high-income and low-income countries respectively, neither of those two frameworks was satisfactory in understanding and addressing the nature of economic growth challenges in middle-income countries; thus, the emergence of the MIT concept. This gave rise to the notion of MIT which is a relatively new phenomenon, conceptually (Glawe -Wagner, 2016;Leven, 2019).…”