Middle-range theories of land system change

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168

While many developed countries are increasing their forest cover, deforestation is still rife in the tropics and subtropics. With international trade in forest-risk commodities on the rise, it is becoming increasingly important to consider between-country trade linkages in assessing the drivers of-and possible connections between-forest loss and gain across countries. Previous studies have shown that countries that have undergone a forest transition (and are now increasing their forest cover) tend to displace land use outside their borders. However, lack of comprehensive data on deforestation drivers imply that it has not been possible to ascertain whether this has accelerated forest loss in sourcing countries. To remedy this, we present a land-balance model that quantifies deforestation embodied in production of agricultural and forestry commodities at country level across the tropics and subtropics, subsequently tracing embodied deforestation to countries of apparent consumption using a physical, country-to-country trade model. We find that in the period 2005-2013, 62% (5.5 Mha yr −1 ) of forest loss could be attributed to expanding commercial cropland, pastures and tree plantations. The commodity groups most commonly associated with deforestation were cattle meat, forestry products, oil palm, cereals and soybeans, though variation between countries and regions was large. A large (26%) and slightly increasing share of deforestation was attributed to international demand, the bulk of which (87%) was exported to countries that either exhibit decreasing deforestation rates or increasing forest cover (lateor post-forest transition countries), particularly in Europe and Asia (China, India, and Russia). About a third of the net forest gains in postforest transition countries was in this way offset by imports of commodities causing deforestation elsewhere, suggesting that achieving a global forest transition will be substantially more challenging than achieving national or regional ones.

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 75%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 64%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Deforestation displaced: trade in forest-risk commodities and the prospects for a global forest transition

Pendrill

Persson

Godar

et al. 2019

256

168

“…Secondly, our case study includes farms in regions that were cleared in many cases decades ago. It is unclear however whether smallholder farmers would engage in intensification practices in a context of abundant forests, and of low labor and capital availability [35,56]: the average investment required for the SPSs technologies for these farms were 911 $ ha −1 , 3277 $ ha −1 and 1522 $ ha −1 for the IPs, FB and ST, respectively [57]. Additionally, in an opposite context of financial support, a deforestation rebound effect could take place, i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reducing deforestation and improving livestock productivity: greenhouse gas mitigation potential of silvopastoral systems in Caquetá

Landholm

Pradhan

Wegmann

et al. 2019

Colombiaʼs agriculture, forestry and other land use sector accounts for nearly half of its total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The importance of smallholder deforestation is comparatively high in relation to its regional counterparts, and livestock agriculture represents the largest driver of primary forest depletion. Silvopastoral systems (SPSs) are presented as agroecological solutions that synergistically enhance livestock productivity, improve local farmers' livelihoods and hold the potential to reduce pressure on forest conversion. The department of Caquetá represents Colombia's most important deforestation hotspot. Targeting smallholder livestock farms through survey data, in this work we investigate the GHG mitigation potential of implementing SPSs for smallholder farms in this region. Specifically, we assess whether the carbon sequestration taking place in the soil and biomass of SPSs is sufficient to offset the per-hectare increase in livestock GHG emissions resulting from higher stocking rates. To address these questions we use data on livestock population characteristics and historic land cover changes reported from a survey covering 158 farms and model the carbon sequestration occurring in three different scenarios of progressively-increased SPS complexity using the CO 2 fix model. We find that, even with moderate tree planting densities, the implementation of SPSs can reduce GHG emissions by 2.6 Mg CO 2e ha −1 yr −1 in relation to current practices, while increasing agriculture productivity and contributing to the restoration of severely degraded landscapes.

“…Interpreting regional context requires greater attention to 'the cultural aspects of landscape patterns' and their effect on 'decision-making processes as well as the institutions and governance structures involved in land management' (Rounsevell et al 2012). Our approach is founded on existing scholarship that examines how environmental signals (feedback from the environment) are incorporated into decisionmaking through perception, interpretation and valuation (Verburg 2006, Lambin and Meyfroidt 2010, Meyfroidt 2013, Meyfroidt et al 2018.…”

Section: Conceptual Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

A land systems science approach to assessing forest governance and characterizing the emergence of social forestry in the Western Cascades of Oregon

Gosnell

Kennedy

Harris

et al. 2020

National forests in the United States are undergoing a spatially and temporally uneven governance transition in response to Congressional policies, agency mandates, and social and economic pressures, with many moving from a wholly state-led 'dominant federal' model to a more collaborative networked governance model which we refer to as 'social forestry'. While the broad contours of this transition have been observed and studied previously, there have been few attempts to characterize it using quantitative, qualitative, or geospatial methods. Here, we combine a novel remote sensing-based method with qualitative social science research to understand the emergence of social forestry and its implications for land use/land cover change associated with implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) in the Western Cascades of Oregon. We linked time-series satellite data with forest inventory data to track patterns of timber harvest at scales commensurate with timber management decision-making. We then compared these patterns to policy-based expectations. We found a significant disconnect between NWFP policy and actual timber harvest patterns, raising questions about the effectiveness of the NWFP land use allocation system and the 'land sparing' approach to managing tensions between conservation and production. Qualitative research, including semistructured interviews with federal agency personnel and local stakeholders, shed light on the causal mechanisms and reciprocal relationships driving spatial patterns of timber harvesting, which we discuss in terms of the emergence of social forestry involving complex, place-based negotiations between the federal government and local veto actors advocating for conservation. Findings have implications for US Forest Service public engagement strategies and efforts to establish zones of agreement regarding timber harvesting, as well as broader discussions about the agency's future.