Midwestern streamflow, precipitation, and atmospheric vorticity influenced by pacific sea-surface temperatures and total solar-irradiance variations

Perry, Charles A.

doi:10.1002/joc.1248

Cited by 9 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Furthermore, the delayed action oscillator responsible for the spatial pattern and evolution the QDO in the Pacific basin (White et al 2003b) has been shown to be resonantly forced by the 11-yr period signal in the sun's irradiance in a fully coupled general circulation model of the ocean-atmosphereterrestrial climate system (White and Liu 2007). These results are consistent with the hypothesis that the tropical Pacific pattern of SST variability associated with the solar-forced QDO drives a significant portion of Midwest drought activity (Perry 2006). …”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Climatic Influences on Midwest Drought during the Twentieth Century

White

Gershunov

Annis³

2008

Journal of Climate

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The Dustbowl Era drought in the 1930s was the principal Midwest drought of the twentieth century, occurring primarily in late spring-summer [April-August (AMJJA)] when Ͼ70% of annual rainfall normally occurred. Another major Midwest drought occurred in the 1950s but primarily in fall-early winter [September-December (SOND)] when normal rainfall was ϳ1/2 as much. Optimized canonical correlation analysis (CCA) is applied to forecast AMJJA and SOND Midwest rainfall variability in cross-validated fashion from antecedent DJF and JJA sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the surrounding oceans. These CCA models simulate (i.e., hindcast, not forecast) the Dustbowl Era drought of the 1930s and four of seven secondary AMJJA droughts (Ն3-yr duration) during the twentieth century, and the principal Midwest drought of the 1950s and one of three secondary SOND droughts. Diagnosing the model canonical correlations finds the superposition of tropical Pacific cool phases of the quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO) and interdecadal oscillation (IDO) responsible for secondary droughts in AMJJA when ENSO was weak and finds the eastern equatorial Pacific cool phase of the ENSO responsible for secondary droughts during SOND when ENSO was strong. These explain why secondary droughts in AMJJA occurred more often (nearly every decade) and were of longer duration than secondary droughts in SOND when decadal drought tendencies were usually interrupted by ENSO. These diagnostics also find the AMJJA Dustbowl Era drought in the 1930s and the principal SOND drought in the 1950s driven primarily by different phases (i.e., in quadrature) of the pentadecadal signal in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO).

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Climatic Influences on Midwest Drought during the Twentieth Century

White

Gershunov

Annis³

2008

Journal of Climate

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“…Natural climate variability will be an important component of future climate conditions, and a good representation of these historical cycles allows for more realistic projections of water availability and the severity of climate extremes. Researchers have observed both interdecadal and intradecadal periodicities in precipitation and streamflow [ Hanson et al , 2006; Perry , 2006], and groundwater levels [ Hanson et al , 2006; Laque‐Espinar et al , 2007]. These low‐frequency signals have been linked to Quasi‐Biannual Oscillation (QBO), El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), tidal, and solar cycles [ Barco et al , 2010; Burroughs , 2003].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Role of surface‐water and groundwater interactions on projected summertime streamflow in snow dominated regions: An integrated modeling approach

Huntington

Niswonger

2012

Water Resources Research

171

120

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[1] Previous studies indicate predominantly increasing trends in precipitation across the Western United States, while at the same time, historical streamflow records indicate decreasing summertime streamflow and 25th percentile annual flows. These opposing trends could be viewed as paradoxical, given that several studies suggest that increased annual precipitation will equate to increased annual groundwater recharge, and therefore increased summertime flow. To gain insight on mechanisms behind these potential changes, we rely on a calibrated, integrated surface and groundwater model to simulate climate impacts on surface water/groundwater interactions using 12 general circulation model projections of temperature and precipitation from 2010 to 2100, and evaluate the interplay between snowmelt timing and other hydrologic variables, including streamflow, groundwater recharge, storage, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration. Hydrologic simulations show that the timing of peak groundwater discharge to the stream is inversely correlated to snowmelt runoff and groundwater recharge due to the bank storage effect and reversal of hydraulic gradients between the stream and underlying groundwater. That is, groundwater flow to streams peaks following the decrease in stream depth caused by snowmelt recession, and the shift in snowmelt causes a corresponding shift in groundwater discharge to streams. Our results show that groundwater discharge to streams is depleted during the summer due to earlier drainage of shallow aquifers adjacent to streams even if projected annual precipitation and groundwater recharge increases. These projected changes in surface water/groundwater interactions result in more than a 30% decrease in the projected ensemble summertime streamflow. Our findings clarify causality of observed decreasing summertime flow, highlight important aspects of potential climate change impacts on groundwater resources, and underscore the need for integrated hydrologic models in climate change studies.Citation: Huntington, J. L., and R. G. Niswonger (2012), Role of surface-water and groundwater interactions on projected summertime streamflow in snow dominated regions: An integrated modeling approach, Water Resour. Res., 48, W11524,

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“…Another, also still debated, manifestation of the 22-year cycle is a drought pattern in the western United States (Mitchell et al, 1979). Perry (2005) gives an updated overview regarding the droughts and also regarding floods related to the Mississippi river, and it appears that the 22-year cycle is indeed present in the data. The relative importance of the 22-year and 11-year cycles has also been discussed by Burroughs (2004), who gives further evidence for a strong 22-year cycle in many data series.…”

Section: Rainfalls and Droughtsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A criterion to discriminate between solar and cosmic ray forcing of the terrestrial climate

Fichtner

Scherer

Heber

2006

Preprint

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Abstract. There is increasing evidence that there exist interstellar-terrestrial relations and that the heliosphere's effectivity to serve as a protecting shield for the Earth, specifically against cosmic rays, is varying in time. Nonetheless, a debate is going on whether, amongst other drivers, the Sun or the cosmic rays are influencing the terrestrial climate, particularly on periods of hundred years and shorter. As the modelling of the transport of cosmic rays in the heliosphere has evolved from pure test particle simulations to far more consistent treatments, one can explain various correlations within the framework of physical models and one can make quantitative predictions regarding terrestrial indicators of interstellar-terrestrial relations. This level of understanding and modelling allows to identify a criterion with which one can discriminate between solar and cosmic ray forcing on a period of several decades. We define such a criterion and discuss related existing observations.

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Midwestern streamflow, precipitation, and atmospheric vorticity influenced by pacific sea-surface temperatures and total solar-irradiance variations

Cited by 9 publications

References 26 publications

Climatic Influences on Midwest Drought during the Twentieth Century

Climatic Influences on Midwest Drought during the Twentieth Century

Role of surface‐water and groundwater interactions on projected summertime streamflow in snow dominated regions: An integrated modeling approach

A criterion to discriminate between solar and cosmic ray forcing of the terrestrial climate

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