Migrant Age Profiles and Long‐Run Living Standards in Australia

Parr, Nick; Guest, Ross

doi:10.1111/1467-8462.12356

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…While it is hoped that the presentation of net migration replacement level in this paper will enhance the understanding of population dynamics for the populations it has considered, it should not be assumed that the replacement level is necessarily the most desirable level for net migration, or that the 'optimum' population size is the current population (Parr and Guest, 2014;Striessnig and Lutz, 2013). The social evaluation of migration levels should extend beyond a consideration of their implications for the trajectory of population size to also take into account their implications for a range of other population-related outcomes, including age structure, spatial distribution, human capital, labour force participation and productivity (Lutz and Gailey, 2020;Guest and Parr, 2020;Parr and Guest, 2020).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries

Parr¹

2022

Populationyearbook

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Between 2009 and 2018, the total fertility rate fell in most European countries. In 2018, fertility was below the replacement level throughout Europe. Net migration was positive for two-thirds of European countries. This paper illustrates the implications for long-run population growth of observed net migration-fertilitymortality combinations in 20 European countries over the 2009–18 period by comparing the observed net migration to a zero population growth-related ‘replacement level’ for net migration. The results show that in several northern and north-western European countries, the net migration level has been consistently above this replacement level: if the net migration level and fertility and mortality rates remain constant, the population would increase. However, the findings also indicate that in all of the eastern European countries covered, the net migration level has been consistently below the net migration replacement level. The results further show that in Finland, Norway and Switzerland, the long-run implications of having constant fertility-mortality-net migration levels change from leading to population growth to leading to population decline. The opposite pattern is observed in Germany. The feasibility of preventing long-run population decreases through changes in net migration levels is discussed in light of the results.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries

Parr¹

2022

Populationyearbook

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“…The most recent projections by birthplace we are aware of are those by Gibson et al (2001) who published projections of the older Culturally and Linguistically Diverse (CALD) 2 population of Australia from 1996 to 2026. Although there is no shortage of research on the demography of historical and contemporary immigration trends and immigrant populations in Australia, the focus of these studies has not been directly on examining population ageing of migrant groups in Australia (for example Hugo 2006Hugo , 2014Khoo et al 2011;Wilson and Raymer 2017;Markus 2014;Tang et al 2014;Productivity Commission 2016;Parr and Guest 2019;Jupp 2001;Department of Immigration and Multicultural Affairs 1999).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Projections of Older European Migrant Populations in Australia, 2016–56

et al. 2021

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Many of the European migrant populations which settled in Australia in the three decades after World War Two are now much older, and their aged care and health care needs are changing. While there is a considerable literature on individual aspects of ageing in many migrant groups (particularly as it pertains to culturally appropriate aged care), little research attention has been given to population aspects of ageing and its implications. The aim of this paper is to address this lacuna by presenting projections of Australia's Europe-born older migrant population from 2016 to 2056. The population projections were created by a cohortcomponent model modified to accommodate multiple birthplace populations. Findings show the older Europe-born population is projected to experience a slight increase over the next few years, reach a peak of just under one million in the early 2030s, and then undergo a gradual decline thereafter. The Europe-born share of Australia's 65+ population will fall, from 25.5% in 2016 to 10% by 2056. Populations born in Western and Southern Europe are likely to decline throughout the projection horizon while, the Northern Europe-born and Ireland-born older populations are projected to grow continually. The populations born in the UK and South Eastern Europe initially grow before decline sets in. To a large extent the future population size of these older migrant groups will be the result of cohort flow. We discuss the implications of the coming demographic changes for government policy and culturally appropriate service provision.

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“…In the context of ageing and migration in Australia, projections of the future overseas-born population serve to inform research, policy, and practice around health promotion (Clarke & Isphording, 2017;Henderson & Kendall, 2011), culturally Table 4 for the definition of broad regions appropriate aged-care services (Radermacher et al, 2009), and general health care and social exclusion policies (Rao et al, 2006;Warburton, Bartlett, & Rao, 2009). More broadly, projections may also contribute to the growing international scholarship on migration-driven change in employment patterns, demands for social security and support services, and overall welfare and living standards in migrant-receiving high income countries (Bolzman, Poncioni-Derigo, Vial, & Fibbi, 2004;De Alwis, Parr, & Guo, 2019;Mui, Nguyen, Kang, & Domanski, 2006;Parr & Guest, 2019;Rallu, 2017;Warnes, Friedrich, Kellaher, & Torres, 2004). Our paper contributes to this literature by presenting new projections of Australia's older population by birthplace from 2016 to 2056.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Past and projected growth of Australia’s older migrant populations

Wilson

McDonald

Temple

et al. 2020

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In recent years, Australia's older population (aged 65 and over) has been growing rapidly, accompanied by a shift in its country of birth composition. Although a great deal of research has been undertaken on past and current aspects of Australia's migrant groups, little attention has been paid to future demographic trends in older populations. The aim of this paper is to examine recent and possible future demographic trends of Australia's migrant populations at the older ages. We present population estimates by country and broad global region of birth from 1996 to 2016, and then new birthplace-specific population projections for the 2016 to 2056 period. Our findings show that substantial growth of the 65+ population will occur in the coming decades, and that the overseas-born will shift from a Europe-born dominance to an Asia-born dominance. Cohort flow (the effect of varying sizes of cohorts moving into the 65+ age group over time) will be the main driver of growth for most older birthplace populations. The shifting demography of Australia's older population signals many policy, planning, service delivery and funding challenges for government and private sector providers. We discuss those related to aged care, health care, language services, the aged care workforce, regulatory frameworks and future research needs in demography and gerontology.

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Migrant Age Profiles and Long‐Run Living Standards in Australia

Cited by 4 publications

References 26 publications

Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries

Immigration and the prospects for long-run population decreases in European countries

Projections of Older European Migrant Populations in Australia, 2016–56

Past and projected growth of Australia’s older migrant populations

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