Migration and Climate Change: Towards an Integrated Assessment of Sensitivity

Abstract

This paper sets out a new approach to understanding the relationship between migration and climate change. Based on the understanding that migration is a significant, growing, but also complex phenomenon, this approach seeks to address the sensitivity of existing migration drivers in specific contexts to climate change. In contrast to existing approaches which have sought to generate global-level estimates of the numbers of`climate migrants', this integrated assessment approach seeks instead to understand how and why existing flows from and to specific locations may change in the future, and provide a practical tool for climate adaptation planning. Examples of the application of this approach are provided for Ghana and Bangladesh.

Forecasting environmental migration to the United Kingdom: an exploration using Bayesian models

“…Recent research (Piguet et al, 2011; Government Office for Science (GOS), 2011) contradicts earlier assertions that climate change will produce mass environmental migration (Myers, 1993, Stern 2007. This recent wave of research suggests that where environmental movement occurs, it will be focused mainly in the poorer nations of the world, and that regions such as north-west Europe will receive few migrants compared with the scale of environmentally-driven short distance moves that will take place in Asia and Africa (Black et al, 2011b;de Haas, 2011). …”

“…Reviews of this literature show that most environmentally-linked mobility is short distance and within country and that perhaps the greatest risk is human immobility in the face of environmental change (Findlay, 2011). The recent migration systems emphasis in the study of human mobility in an era of environmental change has led to recognition of the complex and entangled nature of migration motivations and to the recommendation that researchers should focus on understanding the role of environmental forces in impacting existing migration regimes, both directly and indirectly (Black et al, 2011a(Black et al, , 2011b, as opposed to making estimates based on the populations of areas at highest risks of rapid environmental change. This multi-causal approach also recognises the diversity of mobility responses that can emerge in association with different types of environmental events.…”

“…Early estimates by environmentalists (Myers, 1993) focused on forecasting the numbers of people who would be displaced because they were living in areas deemed to be at high risk of an identifiable environmental process linked to global warming (such as sea level rise). This literature has been widely reviewed and we do not rehearse the arguments once again here (Black et al, 2011b;Gemenne, 2011).…”

Patterns and Factors of Natural Hazard Induced Out-migration from Meghna Estuarine Islands of Bangladesh

“…These terms have been found both politically and analytically lacking as they do not offer protection under the Geneva Refugee Convention of 1951 For Bangladesh the most crucial impact of climate change will result in the migration of the people from coastal areas through the increases in the frequency and severity of chronic environmental hazards and sudden onset disasters (Barman et al 2012). According to Black et al (2011) estimated numbers of environmental migrants in Bangladesh have been very high and are also project to increase in future. Black et al (2011) have developed an integrated assessment approach to understand reseasons and patterns of changes in existing migration flows using examples from Bangladesh.…”

“…Coastal and riverine zones are among most vulnerable regions of climate change induced migration (Scheffran, Battaglini, 2011). Projected climate change is expected to severely affect people's livelihoods through intensification of natural disasters; increased warming and drought affecting agricultural production and access to clean water; rising sea levels making coastal areas uninhabitable and increasing the number of sinking island states (Martin 2009;Black et al 2011). In general, population mobility or movement includes all kind of spatial relocation from routine daily commuting to permanent migration that occur over various distances, and in which the duration of moves varies from a few hours to many years (UN 1970;Mahbub 1997).…”