Migration patterns in a remittances dependent economy: Evidence from Tajikistan during the global financial crisis

Abstract

Before the global financial crisis, Tajikistan was a major labour exporting and the world’s most remittances-dependent country. Remittances had contributed to a remarkable reduction in poverty. This paper exploits a new panel data set spanning the years 2007 to 2009 in order to investigate the effect of the financial crisis on migration and remittances patterns. Expectedly, the economic recession in the main destination country Russia affected Tajikistan through declining remittances. Owing to low diversification in pre-crisis migration patterns, the dependency on sending migrants to Russia and the migration stock there grew. In combination with increased migration risk this suggests that migrants bear part of the cost of the crisis.

The Institutionalization of Mobility: Well-being and Social Hierarchies in Central Asian Translocal Livelihoods

“…Habiba's father was 'driven' to Moscow by Tajikistan's dire economic situation in the early years following the civil war (1992)(1993)(1994)(1995)(1996)(1997). His generation paved the way for currently about two million mostly young and middle-aged Tajik men and women abroad, whose remittances amount up to 35% of Tajikistan's GNP (making it the most remittance-dependent country in the world; Danzer and Ivaschenko 2010;Schmitz and Wolters 2012, 15). In Moscow, with support from his relatives in Dushanbe, Habiba's father managed to establish a successful trade business with pharmaceuticals from the Russian capital to Dushanbe.…”

Doubling Up or Moving Out? The Effect of International Labor Migration on Household Size

“…Although the decreased demand for international workers during the crisis forced many migrants to return to Tajikistan, a larger number of households in Tajikistan engaged in labour migration in 2009 than in 2007 (Danzer and Ivaschenko, ). At the same time, families increased the number of persons per household who were sent to Russia for work (Danzer et al, ).…”

No country for young men: International migration and left‐behind children in Tajikistan

“…Still, emigrants make on average six times more than the average earnings in Tajikistan. In addition, almost all tend to remit cash back to their relatives left behind (Buckley & Hofmann, ; Danzer & Ivaschenko, ; Gang et al., ; World Bank, ).…”

“…Nonetheless, given the observational nature of the data and non‐random selection into migration, I also use an instrumental variable strategy to account for potential sources of time‐varying endogeneity affecting both migration decisions and individual outcomes. Since the vast majority of Tajikistani emigrants (more than 90 percentage) move to the Russian Federation (Danzer & Ivaschenko, ; IMF, ; IOM, ), I develop an instrument based on the economic conditions prevailing in Russia and spatial variation in migration costs. Business cycles overseas are exogenous to the schooling and labour outcomes of Tajikistani children, but it is reasonable to expect that they affect household emigration decisions .…”