Migration risk of fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) from North Africa to Southern Europe

Abstract

With the development of globalization and agriculture trade, as well as its own strong migratory capacity, fall armyworm (FAW) (Spodoptera frugiperda) (J.E. Smith) has invaded more than 70 countries, posing a serious threat to the production of major crops in these areas. FAW has now also been detected in Egypt in North Africa, putting Europe, which is separated from it only by the Mediterranean Sea, at high risk of invasion. Therefore, this study integrated multiple factors of insect source, host plant, and environment to provide a risk analysis of the potential trajectories and time periods of migration of FAW into Europe in 2016~2022. First, the CLIMEX model was used to predict the annual and seasonal suitable distribution of FAW. The HYSPLIT numerical trajectory model was then used to simulate the possibility of the FAW invasion of Europe through wind-driven dispersal. The results showed that the risk of FAW invasion between years was highly consistent (P<0.001). Coastal areas were most suitable for the expansion of the FAW, and Spain and Italy had the highest risk of invasion, with 39.08% and 32.20% of effective landing points respectively. Dynamic migration prediction based on spatio-temporal data can enable early warning of FAW, which is important for joint multinational pest management and crop protection.

Fitness and cold tolerance of Spodoptera frugiperda fed on corn and two winter crops

“…FAW is a major migratory and polyphagous pest, its overwintering, migration, and colonization are closely related to vegetation and host adaptation (Huang et al, 2020;Wang, Huang, et al, 2023). In this study, we found that the optimum host of FAW was corn, however, FAW could still grow and produce offspring fed on cabbage and rape.…”

“…On the other hand, FAW had an oviposition preference on corn compared to other crops, such as cabbage and soybean, but these crops provided a higher offspring performance than corn (Sotelo-Cardona et al, 2021). It is very important to reveal the physiological effects of hosts on FAW to predict its spread potential and population dynamics (Sisay et al, 2023;Wang, Huang, et al, 2023).…”

Computing Geographical Networks Generated by Air‐Mass Movement

“…The computation of spatial connectivities generated by air-mass movement and the resulting geographical networks offers new possibilities to test and explore the links between the atmosphere and biological systems with components that are disseminated via the air (Choufany, Martinetti, Senoussi, et al, 2021;Leyronas et al, 2018;Pretorius et al, 2023;Radici et al, 2022;M. Wang et al, 2021;J. Wang et al, 2023).…”

“…The computation of spatial connectivities generated by air‐mass movement and the resulting geographical networks offers new possibilities to test and explore the links between the atmosphere and biological systems with components that are disseminated via the air (Choufany, Martinetti, Senoussi, et al., 2021; Choufany, Martinetti, Soubeyrand, & Morris, 2021; Leyronas et al., 2018; Pretorius et al., 2023; Radici et al., 2022; M. Wang et al., 2021; J. Wang et al., 2023). The tropolink web application precisely contributes to this objective: it facilitates the computation of air mass trajectories and the resulting connectivity matrix for a network of sites, which relies on relatively complex software and massive data for non‐specialist scientists.…”

“…Such a map, crossed with maps of crop sensitivity to FAW larvae and climate-suitability for FAW (J. Wang et al, 2023), may be used to inform the sampling strategies with the aims of (a) delineating the actual spatial distribution of the pest and (b) enhancing the surveillance in pest-free areas.…”