Mind the Gap? Political Advertisements and Congressional Election Results

Jones, Michael D.; Jorgensen, Paul

doi:10.1080/15377857.2012.703909

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…While many NPF studies describe narrative elements (e.g., Shanahan et al, ) and some account for the persuasiveness of those elements (e.g., Jones, ), none, to date, have modeled and accounted for exposure to those narratives. We expect that to truly discern the effect of policy narratives on public policy, the NPF will need to take the difficult methodological step of accurately accounting for and modeling exposure (see, for example, Jones & Jorgenson, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Using spending as a proxy for exposure—as money can buy a campaign air time, phone calls, or billboards—and exposure to indicate how influenced a person is by a policy position, one possible explanation of Measure 97's failure is that the opposition campaign crowded out the proponent campaign through sheer message volume output in the final weeks of the election, effectively saturating the communication environment with the opposition narrative (see Jones & Jorgensen, ). While our analysis shows that both the proponent and opposition narratives have similar effects on vote switching, it is plausible that the frequent and intense exposure to the opposition narrative could have tipped the scales toward a majority vote against Measure 97.…”

Section: Possible Explanations Of Measure 97 Outcomementioning

confidence: 99%

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Policy Narratives and Policy Outcomes: An NPF Examination of Oregon's Ballot Measure 97

McMorris¹,

Zanocco²,

Jones³

2018

Policy Studies Journal

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Oregon Ballot Measure 97 was a contentious measure on the Oregon 2016 ballot that sought to raise taxes on corporations with sales over 25 million dollars within the state of Oregon. Predictably, there was a considerable amount of lobbying targeting elites and expansive campaigns targeting the public intending to promote or block the measure. Theoretically, this research applies the Narrative Policy Framework to describe these communications in terms of the active narratives within the discourse, assess their effect on the general public and their effect on the Measure 97 election outcome. Methodologically, we leverage qualitative interviews to describe the active narratives; next we assess the potential effects of those same narratives operationalized within a survey experiment administered to an online pool of census‐balanced respondents. We explore our findings through narrative congruence, character affect, and vote switching, as well as in light of the recent election results, where Measure 97 failed to pass. Our models are able to connect narrative effects, public opinion, and policy outcomes via the ballot measure process. We argue that while narrative has discernable effects, it is imperative that future scholarship also consider other factors when examining the role of policy narratives and policy outcomes.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Possible Explanations Of Measure 97 Outcomementioning

confidence: 99%

Policy Narratives and Policy Outcomes: An NPF Examination of Oregon's Ballot Measure 97

McMorris¹,

Zanocco²,

Jones³

2018

Policy Studies Journal

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“…In panel data regressions, RANK is calculated for every year of data in the sample. The rankorder instrumental variable approach has been successfully used to address the endogeneity issue in a wide range of economic contexts (Edwards and Waverman 2006;Evans and Kessides 1993;Jones and Jorgensen 2012;Kroszner and Stratmann 1999;Rummery et al 1999).…”

Section: Econometric Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Microinsurance and Economic Growth in Africa

Karagyozova

2023

Risks

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The reach and scope of microinsurance have expanded considerably over the last couple of decades. The literature on microinsurance focuses predominantly on its microeconomic impact. In contrast, I examine the contemporaneous and intertemporal effect of microinsurance on economic development using rich census data of microinsurance coverage in African economies. Estimates suggest that microinsurance affects economic growth both on impact and over time, with the magnitude of the intertemporal effect exceeding that of the contemporaneous effect. Evidence also suggests nonlinearities in the microinsurance–growth nexus. The marginal effect of microinsurance is a negative function of the starting level of development. For low-income countries, microinsurance has a robust positive effect on economic growth, both in terms of impact and over time. However, microinsurance may fail to leave a lasting trace on the aggregate economy in “richer” developing countries.

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“…But in the case of the Tea Party, for sure, the Dark 52 ; we repeat our caution, however, that we have not yet fully analyzed the Sanders data for the 2016 election cycle. 53 (Ferguson, 1995b;Jones & Jorgensen, 2012). 54 See the discussion in and (Ferguson, 1995b).…”

Section: Corporations Holding the Center?mentioning

confidence: 99%