Minimization of Critical Infrastructure Accident Losses of Chemical Releases Impacted by Climate-Weather Change

Bogalecka, Magdalena; Kołowrocki, K.

doi:10.1109/ieem.2018.8607506

Cited by 7 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…It could be highly interesting in future research to extend the model of shipping accident and chemical release consequences by adding weather impact. The first attempts have been made in [41,67], where only the influence of sea wave height, wind speed and direction were taken into consideration. Moreover, other parameters such as the temperature of water and air and the salinity of sea water, which are crucially significant to the range of environmental degradations caused by chemical releases, should be investigated.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Shipping Accidents Consequences Assessment

Bogalecka

Dąbrowska

2023

Water

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The purpose of this study is to present and apply an innovative technique to model environmental consequences of shipping accidents in relations to events initiating those accidents. The Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to model shipping accidents and chemical release consequences within the world’s sea and ocean waters. The model was created based on the previously designed novel general probabilistic approach to critical infrastructure accident consequences, including three models: the process of initiating events generated by a critical infrastructure accident, the process of environmental threats coming from released chemicals that are a result of initiating events, and the process of environmental degradation stemming from environmental threats. It is a new approach that has never been proposed and applied before. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used under the assumption of the semi-Markov model of these three processes. A procedure for the realization and generation of this process and evaluation of its characteristics is proposed and applied in the preparation of the C# program. Using this program, the processes’ characteristics are predicted for a specific sea area. Namely, for the considered processes, the limit values of transient probabilities between the states and the mean values of total sojourn times at the particular states for the fixed time are determined. The results obtained can be used practically by maritime practitioners involved in making decisions related to the safety of maritime transport and to mitigation actions concerned with maritime accidents.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Shipping Accidents Consequences Assessment

Bogalecka

Dąbrowska

2023

Water

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“…Following a maritime accident and the subsequent release of oil, the resulting oil slick disperses and spreads across the water surface [7,20,22,26,35,[47][48][49]. This happens due to gravity and interfacial tension [1,26,33,35,39].…”

Section: Parameters Identification For Selected Baltic Sea Waterway Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The uniformity testing procedure for the process of varying h-m conditions data, including realisation from different experiments or the datasets, is presented, e.g., in [42]. In the aforementioned work, the methods for estimating the probabilities of the initial process states (from Table 1), the probabilities of transitions between these states, and the distributions of the process's sojourn times are discussed [17,18,[40][41][42][44][45][46][47][48] and should be firstly applied.…”

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confidence: 99%

Oil Discharge Trajectory Simulation at Selected Baltic Sea Waterway under Variability of Hydro-Meteorological Conditions

Dąbrowska

2023

Water

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The paper deals with an important issue related to the identification, modelling, and prediction of environmental pollution in aquatic ecosystems of the Baltic Sea caused by anthropopressure. Water ecosystems are in danger nowadays because of the negative influence of chemical releases in seas, oceans, or inland waters. The crucial issue is to prevent the oil spills and mitigate their consequences. Thus, there is a need for methods capable of reducing the water pollution and enhancing the effectiveness of port and marine environment preservation. The challenge in implementing actions to remove and prevent horizontal oil discharge lies in accurately determining its shape and direction of oil spreading. The author employed a self-designed software utilizing modified and developed mathematical probabilistic models to forecast the movement and dispersion of an oil spill in diverse hydrological and meteorological conditions. This involved determining the trajectory and movement of a spill domain, which consists of elliptical sub-domains undergoing temporal changes. The research results obtained are the initial results in the oil spill simulation problem. This approach represents an expanded and innovative method for determining the spill domain and tracking its movement, applicable to oceans and seas worldwide. It expands upon the methodologies firstly discussed, thereby broadening the range of available techniques in this field. A simple model of an oil spill trajectory simulation and a surface oil slick as an ellipse is illustrated using a time-series of selected hydro-meteorological factors that change at random times. The author proposes a Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the extent of an oil spill in an aquatic ecosystem, taking into account the influence of varying hydro-meteorological conditions. A semi-Markov model is defined to capture the dynamics of these conditions within the spill area and develop an enhanced algorithm for predicting changes in the shape and movement of the spill domain under changing these conditions. By applying the algorithm, a simulation is conducted to provide short-term prediction of the oil discharge trajectory in a selected Baltic Sea waterway. To enhance the accuracy of predicting the process of changing conditions, uniformly tested joint datasets from the open sea water area were incorporated. Finally, the potential future prospects and directions for further research in this field are discussed.

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“…FAS should always be treated as an entirety of a given technical structure. However, individual elements, modules, devices, or sensors are operated under different environments [36][37][38], which is critical to, e.g., λ damage intensity, reliability, or false alarm probability [39,40].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Selected Issues Associated with the Operational and Power Supply Reliability of Fire Alarm Systems

et al. 2022

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The article reviews issues associated with the use of electronic fire alarm systems (FAS). They are operated in various environments and buildings with varying volumes. FAS have to function properly under different operating conditions associated with their operation, as well as power supply and information inflow. Due to their functions, i.e., ensuring the safety of people, vehicles, logistics bases, airports, etc., FAS have to exhibit an appropriately organized reliability structure associated with their implementation and power supply. Operational studies involving FAS operated in various facilities were conducted to this end. The authors determined damage and recovery time intensities. FAS reliability indicators were also determined. The article presents graphs associated with developing the energy balance for selected FAS. The graphs are consistent with the latest and applicable legal regulations. The next stage of the work related to this article was developing an FAS operation process model and conducting computer simulations in order to determine reliability indicators. Such an approach to the FAS operation process enables a rational selection of technical and organizational solutions aimed at guaranteeing reliability in the course of executing operational tasks associated with ensuring fire safety. FAS operational analysis, developing balance graphs and models, as well as the computer simulation, enabled inferring conclusions that might be useful to the process of engineering and operating such systems.

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Minimization of Critical Infrastructure Accident Losses of Chemical Releases Impacted by Climate-Weather Change

Cited by 7 publications

References 1 publication

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Shipping Accidents Consequences Assessment

Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Shipping Accidents Consequences Assessment

Oil Discharge Trajectory Simulation at Selected Baltic Sea Waterway under Variability of Hydro-Meteorological Conditions

Selected Issues Associated with the Operational and Power Supply Reliability of Fire Alarm Systems

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