As demand for hydrogen electrolysis increases with the
renewable
energy transition, it is critical to ensure that the supply of required
resources for these technologies is sufficient to match demand. Several
studies have set forth projections for H2 production targets
to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century, where proton exchange
membrane (PEM) electrolyzers feature prominently. As compared to other
commercially available electrolyzers, PEM systems exhibit high current
densities that favor flexible operation to utilize intermittent renewable
energy sources but rely on relatively scarce iridium (Ir) for catalysis.
In this work, we model the supply of Ir resources available for PEM
electrolysis and compare it to the Ir required to meet plausible H2 production targets for 2030 and 2050. In order for Ir supply
to be sufficient for 2030 H2 production targets, significant
improvement in average operational current density or Ir loading would
be required compared to today’s averages of 2 A/cm2 and 2 mg/cm2, respectively. By 2050, current technology
may be sufficient to meet the lower end of H2 production
targets (83 Mt), with modest technological advances needed in case
H2 demand exceeds these levels.