Ministerial stability during presidential approval crises: The moderating effect of ministers’ attributes on dismissals in Brazil and Chile

Abstract

This article analyses the effect of ministers’ exposure to periods of low presidential approval in Brazil and Chile between 1990 and 2014. Approval is explored with quarterly estimates using a dyad-ratios algorithm and merged into a time-dependent cabinet data set to evaluate individual ministerial terminations ( N = 4245). The empirical strategy combines time-varying exposure Cox regressions with observational data and propensity score and matching to estimate the effect of low approval on ministerial survival and perform a moderation analysis with three profiles associated with presidential strategies: (1) nonpartisan ministers to limit agency loss and moral hazard; (2) economists as ministers to optimise cabinet performance and send positive signals to the electorate; and (3) party leaders as ministers to optimise legislative support. The main findings show that risk increases by 135.1% in periods of low approval. In addition, approximately only one in five nonpartisan ministers is removed compared to party members.

Métodos cuantitativos para estudiar a las élites: Aplicaciones prácticas, sesgos y potencialidades

“…Otra línea argumentativa estaría asociada con el riesgo moral y pérdida del control de agencia. En efecto, independiente del régimen de gobierno, los miembros del gabinete tienden a estar expuestos a riesgo moral y una desalineación con los intereses de su principal, lo que puede provocar un bajo desempeño (Dewan y Myatt, 2010;González-Bustamante, 2022a; Martínez-Gallardo y Schleiter, Figura 4: Efecto de la trayectoria empresarial en el riesgo de dejar el gabinete Fuente: Elaboración propia con datos de González-Bustamante y Olivares (2022).…”

“…Otro punto interesante, es la estructuración y división de la producción científica en torno a perspectivas influenciadas por la ciencia política y la sociología de las élites francesa. Esta división epistemológica se ha advertido en varios de los trabajos citados en este artículo y se discute teóricamente de forma crítica en González-Bustamante (2022a).…”

Urban Forests, Territorial Planning and Political Stability: Key Factors to Face Climate Change in a Megacity

“…Although the allocation of public funds is something inherent to each territory, in Brazil, the administrative divisions of the environment usually receive less public funding than other sectors. This becomes even worse when considering a periodic change of public managers in the leadership of these divisions, hindering the continuity of mediumand long-term projects [18]. Thus, the temporal stability of a secretary at the head of the environment secretariat is crucial for the perpetuity and execution of projects aimed at adaptive transformation [19,20].…”