Misperceptions about out-partisans’ democratic values may erode democracy

Abstract

Two studies (one preregistered) of Americans (N = 2200) drawn from a nationally representative panel show that both Democrats and Republicans personally value core democratic characteristics, such as free and fair elections, but severely underestimate opposing party members’ support for those same characteristics. Democrats estimate that the average Democrat values democratic characteristics 56% (in Study 1) and 77% (in Study 2) more than the average Republican. In a mirror image, Republicans estimate that the average Republican values democratic characteristics 82% (in Study 1) and 88% (in Study 2) more than the average Democrat. In turn, the tendency to believe that political ingroup members value democratic characteristics more than political outgroup members is associated with support for anti-democratic practices, especially among Republicans. Results suggest biased and inaccurate intergroup perceptions may contribute to democratic erosion in the United States.

Outlier Evidence of Mutually Positive Intergroup Perceptions During Asymmetric Conflict

“…For example, conflict between Menominee and European American fishermen in North America is associated with strong perceived differences in values and norms regarding the natural environment, whereas actual values and norms are similar (Bang et al, 2007). Likewise, partisans in the United States and around the world exaggerate each other's hatred, prejudice, and obstructionism (Lees & Cikara, 2020;Moore-Berg et al, 2020;Pasek et al, 2023;Pittman & Zeigler, 2007;Ruggeri et al, 2021;Waytz et al, 2014;Westfall et al, 2015). These negatively biased intergroup perceptions may be pronounced in conflict settings, as people overestimate how much outgroup members dehumanize them (Kteily et al, 2016) and how much they attribute negative motives to others (Lees & Cikara, 2020;Pronin et al, 2001;Ruggeri et al, 2021;Waytz et al, 2014).…”

How People Justify Online Political Hostility

“…Social media may be particularly likely to exacerbate partisan conflicts due to exaggerated perceptions about the level of animosity or ideological differences between one's own party and political opponents (Levendusky and Malhotra, 2016;Ruggeri et al, 2021). A burgeoning literature shows that partisans exaggerate the extent to which opposing political party members are willing to undermine democratic norms (Pasek et al, 2022;Mernyk et al, 2022), and show greater tendency to dehumanize their political opponents (Kteily, Hodson and Bruneau, 2016;Pacilli et al, 2016;Moore-Berg et al, 2020;Cassese, 2021;Martherus et al, 2021). The consequence of these forms of political conflicts and (mis)perceptions likely increase conflict and spawn political hostility on social media.…”

Meta-perception and misinformation

“…This presents false second-order information about Democrats' intent to commit election fraud against Republicans. Believing the out-group holds anti-democratic attitudes and is willing to subvert elections is associated with holding those sentiments oneself [20,21], and the authors of both these papers speculate that misinformation forecasting Democratic attempts to subvert a Trump victory in the 2020 Election contributed to Republicans' inaccurate group meta-perceptions and own anti-democratic attitudes. If this is true, it would be evidence for group meta-perception being the mediating causal factor between election-related misinformation and anti-democratic sentiment.…”

“…While misinformation can induce second-order beliefs, it is also plausible that baseline second-order beliefs about the in-and out-group make one more susceptible to misinformation aligned with those beliefs. As mentioned above, Braley et al [20] and Pasek et al [21] speculate that election-related misinformation may have caused the negative group meta-perceptions about out-group willingness to subvert democracy. However, the reverse could also be true.…”