Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling

Bogin, Alexander N.; Doerner, William M.; Larson, William D.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3416895

Cited by 6 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(30 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Estimates here are average treatments based on the location of the centroid. For consideration of block group indices compared to other levels of geographic aggregation, see Bogin, Doerner and Larson (). This research suggests reduction in aggregation bias is outweighed by higher estimation error, and block group indices are less accurate than tract or ZIP5 indices at predicting future transaction prices.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts

Bogin

Doerner

Larson

2018

Real Estate Economics

Self Cite

155

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We introduce the first publicly available data set of constant‐quality house price indices for counties, ZIP codes and census tracts in the United States, at an annual frequency, over a 40‐year period. Between 1990 and 2015, house price gradients within large cities steepen, documenting a reversal of decades of increasing relative desirability of suburban locations. Real house prices are more likely to be nonstationary near the centers of large cities. Within‐city differences in house price appreciation at the ZIP code level are, on average, about half of between‐city differences, though this ratio varies depending on the time period and city size.

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts

Bogin

Doerner

Larson

2018

Real Estate Economics

Self Cite

155

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…While a significant share of single-family home purchases is "all-cash," i.e., made without a mortgage, the bulk of such purchasers are investors and not owner-occupiers, and so are not of interest here. In addition to HMDA data, we also use data from the 2016 five-year American Community Survey (ACS) at the census tract level, and a relatively new home price index provided by the Federal Housing Finance Agency that is available at the tract level, called here the "HPI" for housing price index (Bogin et al 2016a).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While it is possible that there are systematic differences in within-tract appreciation that may affect Black buyer appreciation differently than that of other buyers, there is no way to test this with the available data. Moreover, researchers at the Federal Housing Finance Agency who derived the tract HPI also attempted to develop census block-ground HPIs (a smaller unit of geography) but found that their predictive power was generally no better (and somewhat noisier) than the tract-level index (Bogin et al 2016b).…”

Section: Conclusion and Implications For Housing Policy And Practicementioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Black Homebuying after the Crisis: Appreciation Patterns in Fifteen Large Metropolitan Areas

2019

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Some have questioned the financial wisdom of homeownership and, especially, Black homeownership. This is understandable because the mortgage crisis dealt heavy blows to Black homeowners. One concern is that home values may not appreciate as much where Blacks purchase homes. We examine how Black homebuyers fared compared to White and Latino buyers in terms of home appreciation during the 2012 to 2017 recovery. We examine appreciation rates by race and ethnicity across 15 metros. We then estimate the relationship between appreciation and the race and ethnicity of the homebuyer, as well as characteristics of the neighborhood where the home is purchased. We find Blacks saw higher appreciation rates than Whites in high‐ and medium‐appreciation metros, but not in low‐appreciation metros. We also find that in medium‐ and high‐appreciation metros, buyers in racially diverse neighborhoods tended to see higher levels of appreciation. Also in higher‐appreciation metros, those buying in lower‐income neighborhoods tended to see higher appreciation rates, while those in low‐appreciation metros did not.

show abstract

“…To construct our district-year panel, we identify all libraries within 5 miles of a school district. We subset to districts that have at most 20 library buildings (including branches) within 5 miles of the modal zip code of the district to avoid 9 For more details about Zillow's methodology, see https://www.zillow.com/research/ zhvi-methodology-2019-deep-26226/.…”

Section: Summary Statisticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Returns to Public Library Investment

Gilpin

Karger

Nencka

2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Local governments spend over 12 billion dollars annually funding the operation of 17,000 public libraries in the United States, yet we know little about their e ects. We use data describing the near-universe of public libraries to show that public library investment increases children's attendance at library events by 18%, children's checkouts of items by 21%, and library visits by 21%. Increases in library use translate into improved test scores in nearby school districts: a $1,000 or greater per-student capital investment in local public libraries increases reading test scores by 0.02 standard deviations and has no e ects on math test scores.

show abstract

Missing the Mark: House Price Index Accuracy and Mortgage Credit Modeling

Cited by 6 publications

References 26 publications

Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts

Local House Price Dynamics: New Indices and Stylized Facts

Black Homebuying after the Crisis: Appreciation Patterns in Fifteen Large Metropolitan Areas

The Returns to Public Library Investment

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About