Mistral and Tramontane wind systems in climate simulations from 1950 to 2100

Obermann‐Hellhund, Anika; Conte, Dario; Somot, Samuel; Torma, Csaba; Ahrens, Bodo

doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3635-8

Cited by 17 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Modeling surges at the NW Mediterranean requires atmospheric forcings with a relative high horizontal resolution. Hence, GCMs' usual resolution is insufficient for handling the orographic effects presents in the study Area [73]. In this contribution, the COSMO-CLM model was needed for downscaling the GCM forcings.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling of Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain)

Lin-Ye

Garcı́a-León

Gràcia³

et al. 2020

Water

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Storm surges are one of the main drivers for extreme flooding at the coastal areas. Such events can be characterized with the maximum level in an extreme storm surge event (surge peak), as well as the duration of the event. Surge projections come from a barotropic model for the 1950-2100 period, under a severe climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) at the northeastern Spanish coast. The relationship of extreme storm surges to three large-scale climate patterns was assessed: North Atlantic Oscillation (N AO), East Atlantic Pattern (EAWR), and Scandinavian Pattern (SC). The statistical model was built using two different strategies. In Strategy #1, the joint probability density was characterized by a moving-average series of stationary Archimedean copula, whereas in Strategy #2, the joint probability density was characterized by a non-stationary probit copula. The parameters of the marginal distribution and the copula were defined with generalized additive models. The analysis showed that the mean values of surge peak and event duration were constant and were independent of the proposed climate patterns. However, the values of N AO and SC influenced the threshold and the storminess of extreme events. According to Strategy #1, the variance of the surge peak and event duration increased with a fast shift of negative SC and a positive N AO, respectively. Alternatively, Strategy #2 showed that the variance of the surge peak increased with a positive EAWR. Both strategies coincided in that the joint dependence of the maximum surge level and the duration of extreme surges ranged from low to medium degree. Its mean value was stationary, and its variability was linked to the geographical location. Finally, Strategy #2 helped determine that this dependence increased with negative N AO.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling of Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain)

Lin-Ye

Garcı́a-León

Gràcia³

et al. 2020

Water

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“…The authors found only small changes in Mistral frequency in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 projections, but a significant decrease in Tramontane frequency was found, with no changes in wind speed during those events. Associated with the decreased wind speed in the 90th percentiles, Obermann-Hellhund et al (2017) indicated fewer Tramontane events. Furthermore, the authors indicated the need to investigate the influence of the same driving GCM on different RCMs but did not have the possibility to survey it in their study.…”

Section: Projected Changes In Local Winds Over the Mediterranean Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, wind speed changes are caused not only by changes in large‐scale pressure conditions but also by even stronger changes in local wind systems (e.g., Bora, Sirocco, Mistral, and Tramontane), which are better resolved in RCMs than in GCMs. These local wind systems often belong to severe winds and are mainly induced orographically (Grisogono & Belušić, ; Horvath et al, ; Obermann‐Hellhund et al, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Extensive studies dealing with the wind field using high‐resolution RCM projections focused on particular parts of the Mediterranean region, where winds are greatly channeled by topography, are still rare, and are insufficient. Obermann‐Hellhund et al (, ) focused on the present and future occurrences of Mistral and Tramontane, winds in the Gulf of Lyon in the western Mediterranean. The authors found only small changes in Mistral frequency in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 projections, but a significant decrease in Tramontane frequency was found, with no changes in wind speed during those events.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Wind Over the Adriatic Region in CORDEX Climate Change Scenarios

et al. 2019

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Near‐surface winds over the Adriatic region are examined under present‐day and future climate conditions for two greenhouse gas scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) with an ensemble of high‐resolution (0.11°) Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) simulations. The influence of particular combinations of regional climate models and global climate models and emission scenarios on the future changes in the near‐surface wind field has been explored in more detail. Starting with the seasonal climate change signal in large‐scale flow over the entire CORDEX domain, we focus on regional daily wind fields over the Adriatic domain and subdaily features of well‐known regional winds (Bora and Sirocco winds). The analysis reveals the strong sensitivity of the climate change signal in the simulated wind flow to (i) the choice of the global climate model that provides the boundary conditions and (ii) the analyzed locations across the Adriatic region. The results of the 21st‐century projections indicate that the changes in synoptic activity have an impact on the wind field at the (sub)daily time scale. We found a reduction in the number of Bora events and increase in the number of Sirocco events in northern Adriatic during the winter season, with an increase in pressure in the middle of the 21st century. Overall, the mean wind speed during Bora and Sirocco events is reduced, except for Bora in northern Adriatic. For the summer season, we found a large increase in the number of thermally induced flows, which is probably caused by the weakening of the Azores High.

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“…The north-western Mediterranean presents a particularly intense wind forcing, which is shaped by local orography (Jordi et al, 2011;Lebeaupin Brossier et al, 2012). The Pyrenees mountain chain across the strip of land connecting the Iberian Peninsula to the European continent forces a strong northern wind flux following the French-Spanish Mediterranean coast (Nicolle et al, 2009;Schaeffer et al, 2011;Obermann-Hellhund et al, 2017). This same wind pattern is channelled by the river valleys resulting in a northwestern orientation for winds blowing from land to sea further down along the coast (Cerralbo et al, 2015) for latitudes southward of 41 • N. The most frequently observed patterns are thus from the north in the coastal sector closer to the Pyrenees barrier and from the north-west further south, conditioned by the river valleys and gaps in the coastal parallel mountains (Obermann et al, 2016;Lin-Ye et al, 2016).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

The land–sea coastal border: a quantitative definition by considering the wind and wave conditions in a wave-dominated, micro-tidal environment

Sánchez‐Arcilla¹,

Lin-Ye²,

Garcı́a-León³

et al. 2019

Ocean Sci.

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Abstract. A quantitative definition for the land–sea (coastal) transitional area is proposed here for wave-driven areas, based on the variability and isotropy of met-ocean processes. Wind velocity and significant wave height fields are examined for geostatistical anisotropy along four cross-shore transects on the Catalan coast (north-western Mediterranean), illustrating a case of significant changes along the shelf. The variation in the geostatistical anisotropy as a function of distance from the coast and water depth has been analysed through heat maps and scatter plots. The results show how the anisotropy of wind velocity and significant wave height decrease towards the offshore region, suggesting an objective definition for the coastal fringe width. The more viable estimator turns out to be the distance at which the significant wave height anisotropy is equal to the 90th percentile of variance in the anisotropies within a 100 km distance from the coast. Such a definition, when applied to the Spanish Mediterranean coast, determines a fringe width of 2–4 km. Regarding the probabilistic characterization, the inverse of wind velocity anisotropy can be fitted to a log-normal distribution function, while the significant wave height anisotropy can be fitted to a log-logistic distribution function. The joint probability structure of the two anisotropies can be best described by a Gaussian copula, where the dependence parameter denotes a mild to moderate dependence between both anisotropies, reflecting a certain decoupling between wind velocity and significant wave height near the coast. This wind–wave dependence remains stronger in the central bay-like part of the study area, where the wave field is being more actively generated by the overlaying wind. Such a pattern controls the spatial variation in the coastal fringe width.

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Mistral and Tramontane wind systems in climate simulations from 1950 to 2100

Abstract: simulations using RCP8.5 show fewer Tramontane events than those using RCP4.5.

Cited by 17 publications

References 41 publications

Modeling of Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain)

Modeling of Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain)

Wind Over the Adriatic Region in CORDEX Climate Change Scenarios

The land–sea coastal border: a quantitative definition by considering the wind and wave conditions in a wave-dominated, micro-tidal environment

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