Mitigating COVID-19 With Lockdowns: A Possible Exit Strategy

Sarwal, Rakesh; Sarwal, Tanvi

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3563538

Cited by 15 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…More specifically, looking at the European case, its efficiency begins approximately 3 weeks after the lockdown and continues to reduce the number of COVID-19 infections up to 20 days later. While Sarwal and Sarwal [17] suggest that a 'localization' strategy is efficient after 14 days of lockdown, a point at which no further gains can be expected by extending the lockdown, our results seem to contradict this finding from a cross-country perspective, since we detect an increase in benefits and a reduction in contagion even 20 days after the start of lockdown. Accordingly, it seems that any decision to loosen lockdown should be considered very carefully if the full benefits of the measure in terms of reducing new cases are to be enjoyed.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 98%

The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis

Alfano

Ercolano

2020

Appl Health Econ Health Policy

430

386

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Background There has been much debate about the effectiveness of lockdown measures in containing COVID-19, and their appropriateness given the economic and social cost they entail. To the best of our knowledge, no existing contribution to the literature has attempted to gauge the effectiveness of lockdown measures over time in a longitudinal crosscountry perspective. Objectives This paper aims to fill the gap in the literature by assessing, at an international level, the effect of lockdown measures (or the lack of such measures) on the numbers of new infections. Given this policy's expected change in effectiveness over time, we also measure the effect of having a lockdown implemented over a given number of days (from 7 to 20 days). Methods We pursue our objectives by means of a quantitative panel analysis, building a longitudinal dataset with observations from countries all over the world, and estimating the impact of lockdown via feasible generalized least squares fixed effect, random effects, generalized estimating equation, and hierarchical linear models. Results Our results show that lockdown is effective in reducing the number of new cases in the countries that implement it, compared with those countries that do not. This is especially true around 10 days after the implementation of the policy. Its efficacy continues to grow up to 20 days after implementation. Conclusion Results suggest that lockdown is effective in reducing the R0, i.e. the number of people infected by each infected person, and that, unlike what has been suggested in previous analyses, its efficacy continues to hold 20 days after the introduction of the policy.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 98%

The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis

Alfano

Ercolano

2020

Appl Health Econ Health Policy

430

386

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“…It is also worth noting that while these are preliminary results, that need further analysis, certainly could contribute to the academic and political debate about the definition of “mitigation measures” and the possible “exit strategy” from lockdown. For instance while so far the “exit strategy” proposed is the one by Sarwal and Sarwal (2020), that suggest a “localization” strategy after 14 days of lockdown, which according to the authors represent a sort of deadline where no further gains can be expected by extending the lockdown, our results seem to contradict this finding, and detect an increase in the benefit and a growing reduction of contagions also 20 days after the lockdown. It is nevertheless important to highlight also in this conclusion that our perspective is the one of a cross-country analysis, and thus average for the world or a continent, with all the benefits in terms of generalization of the results, but also the limits while applying this finding to a specific country or to derive a precise estimate.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 66%

Shut it down: a cross country panel analysis on the efficacy of lockdown measures

Alfano

Ercolano

2020

Preprint

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Coronavirus pandemic outbreak from China in the December 2019 and since then has quickly spread all over the world. National governments introduced policies aimed to reduce the probability to contract the virus, such as lockdown measures, in order to limit the outbreak. Lockdown fostered a debate about the effective need and the optimal duration of such measures. Indeed, these policies have a high price, being characterized by the alt of many productive activities. The aim of this note is to provide preliminary evidences about the efficacy of lockdown measures all over the world, by the means of a panel data quantitative analysis. Our results confirm the efficacy of such measures, and that the average time to have effects in terms of a reduction of cases is of about ten days. Furthermore the beneficial effects of a lockdown keep reducing the new cases with a linear trend for at least the ten successive days.

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“…48 Therefore, lockdown is a hard choice and challenging in order to maintain essential services. 49 According to a study conducted in Nepal, a long and strict lockdown had negative effects on many health aspects of people and the community: many women are facing barrier in accessing maternal health services; data have shown an increase in suicide attempts; children Open access and students felt stressed due to uncertainty about the future. 12 Quarantine is effective to control the COVID-19, 50 but its effective management is a challenge for the government.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perceptions and experiences of the public regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in Nepal: a qualitative study using phenomenological analysis

Bhatt¹,

Bhatt

Gurung

et al. 2020

BMJ Open

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ObjectivesPerceptions of people regarding COVID-19 influences their health behaviour in terms of seeking public health services. This helps the government in planning appropriate public health strategies. Therefore, this study intends to explore the perceptions of people towards COVID-19 and their experiences during the pandemic in Nepal.Design, setting and participantsThis qualitative study was conducted among the public in Kathmandu, Kanchanpur, Bajura and Jhapa districts of Nepal. Eight focus group discussions and 40 in-depth interviews were conducted by using a maximum variation sampling method.ResultsThe findings were organised into the following themes: General understanding of COVID-19, Disease prevention, Source of information and misconceptions, Expectation and challenges; and Personal and societal consequences of COVID-19, social distancing and lockdown. There was a good general understanding among respondents about COVID-19, personal preventive measures and population-level strategies. They responded that the use of masks, sanitisers, handwashing and proper lockdown would help to prevent the disease. The respondents acknowledged the vital role of media in increasing awareness. Participants also expressed concerns over the misleading news spread by some media. The lack of social interaction, isolation and loss of income were raised as pertinent issues by the participants as potentially leading to psychological consequences. Health workers and public both raised concerns over inadequate Personal Protective Equipment, under-prepared health system, unorganised public quarantine centres, and public violation of lockdownConclusionsThis study reports participants’ views on disease prevention measures such as maintaining personal hygiene, adhering to physical distancing, and using personal protective equipments. Additionally, it illuminates the confusion among public due to conflicting public health messages from different sources of information which was deemed as misleading by the participants. This research sheds light on people’s perspectives and experiences that can inform population-targeted policies in the future.

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Mitigating COVID-19 With Lockdowns: A Possible Exit Strategy

Cited by 15 publications

References 0 publications

The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis

The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis

Shut it down: a cross country panel analysis on the efficacy of lockdown measures

Perceptions and experiences of the public regarding the COVID-19 pandemic in Nepal: a qualitative study using phenomenological analysis

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