Mitigating the Twin Threats of Climate-Driven Atlantic Hurricanes and COVID-19 Transmission

Abstract

The co-occurrence of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season and the ongoing Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic creates complex dilemmas for protecting populations from these intersecting threats. Climate change is likely contributing to stronger, wetter, slower-moving, and more dangerous hurricanes. Climate-driven hazards underscore the imperative for timely warning, evacuation, and sheltering of storm-threatened populations – proven life-saving protective measures that gather evacuees together inside durable enclosed spaces when a hurricane approaches. Meanwhile, the rapid acquisition of scientific knowledge regarding how COVID-19 spreads has guided mass anti-contagion strategies including lockdowns, sheltering-at-home, physical distancing, donning personal protective equipment, conscientious hand washing, and hygiene practices. These life-saving strategies, credited with preventing millions of COVID-19 cases, separate and move people apart. Enforcement coupled with fear of contracting COVID-19 have motivated high levels of adherence to these stringent regulations. How will populations react when warned to shelter from an oncoming Atlantic hurricane while COVID-19 is actively circulating in the community? Emergency managers, healthcare providers, and public health preparedness professionals must create viable solutions to confront these potential scenarios: elevated rates of hurricane-related injury and mortality among persons who refuse to evacuate due to fear of COVID-19, and resurgence of COVID-19 cases among hurricane evacuees who shelter together.

A Rapid Assessment of Disaster Preparedness Needs and Resources during the COVID-19 Pandemic

“…These challenges for example include new barriers to developing evacuation plans and providing for needs of disaster victims while risking a surge in COVID-19 infections due to social distancing constraints; competing for funds to support disaster-related activities; developing new support infrastructures; and focusing on equity in disaster preparedness. Schultz and colleagues [ 17 , 55 , 56 ] have pointed to the incompatibility of simultaneously bringing people together for evacuation and sheltering during a natural disaster and keeping them apart during the pandemic. A survey of local government readiness to weather-related disasters found that small, resource-poor governments will not be able to respond well during the pandemic, leading to an increase in social inequities [ 49 ].…”

“…For instance, consideration may be given to special populations (e.g., people returning from incarceration, people living with severe mental illness) and the implementation of a stepped care approach for treatment of symptoms of anxiety relating to fears of infection and illness, the stress of isolation and confinement, and the economic consequences of the pandemic, and needs for information on best practices for safety in interaction. By adhering to CDC and FEMA guidelines for disaster preparedness and response during the pandemic [ 56 ], organizations or partnerships may be able to take on new roles supporting communities’ social distancing practices, mask use, SARS-CoV-2 testing, or immunization efforts in anticipation of threats of climate-related events such as hurricanes in 2021 and beyond. Organizations in other Gulf coast communities implemented modifications in evacuation and sheltering procedures to increase personal space and separate those with known COVID-19 infection during Hurricanes Hanna and Laura this past summer [ 55 ].…”

Cascading Risks of COVID-19 Resurgence During an Active 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season

“…Climate change has been increasing Atlantic hurricane activity over recent decades, producing storms that collectively are stronger, wetter, and slower moving over populated coastlines. 1,7 Within a span of less than 3 years (ie, from October 2016-September 2019), 5 category 5 Atlantic hurricanes made landfall in the US and Puerto Rico (Dorian, Irma, Maria, Matthew, and Michael), and 2 category 4 storms (Florence and Harvey) produced torrential rains and extreme flooding.…”

“…First, reestablish the COVID-19 prevention lifestyle. 1 Steeply rising COVID-19 case numbers and death rates throughout the hurricane coast is sufficient justification for reinstating physical distancing and related mitigation strategies that have proven effective. 8 As the peak of hurricane season approaches, measures that can prevent pandemic proliferation also diminish risks when convergent disaster events occur.…”

Superimposed threats to population health from tropical cyclones in the prevaccine era of COVID-19

“…This fundamental incompatibility makes it impossible to eliminate both risks concurrently when a tropical cyclone threatens a population in which COVID-19 is actively circulating. 6,7 The incompatibility creates two offsetting concerns. First, a primary preoccupation of emergency managers is that people will fail to heed evacuation orders owing to fear of COVID-19, leading to preventable injury and death.…”