Mitigation Potential of Ecosystem-Based Forest Management under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Boreal-Temperate Forest Ecotone

Abstract

The forest sector can help reduce atmospheric CO2 through carbon (C) sequestration and storage and wood substitution of more polluting materials. However, climate change can have an impact on the C fluxes we are trying to leverage through forestry. We calculated the difference in CO2 eq. fluxes between ecosystem-based forest management and total forest conservation in the context of the temperate-boreal forest ecotone of Quebec (Canada), taking into account fluxes from forest ecosystems, wood product life cycle, and the substitution effect of wood products on markets. Over the 2020–2120 period, in the absence of climate change, ecosystem-based forest management and wood production caused average net annual emissions of 66.9 kilotonnes (kt) of CO2 eq. year−1 (relative to forest conservation), and 15.4 kt of CO2 eq. year−1 when assuming a 100% substitution effect of wood products. While management increased the ecosystem C sink, emissions from degradation of largely short-lived wood products caused the system to be a net source. Moreover, climate warming would decrease the capacity of ecosystems to sequester C and cause a shift towards more hardwood species. Our study highlights the need to adapt the industrial network towards an increased capacity of processing hardwoods into long-lived products and/or products with high substitution potential.

A regional integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change and of the potential adaptation avenues for Quebec's forests

“…However, their resilience, i.e., their ability to recover pre-disturbance forest attributes after forest disturbance, is limited by the frequency and severity of fire events (Pinno et al 2013, Splawinski et al 2019a,c, Baltzer et al 2021, which are projected to increase over the next century (Flannigan et al 2005, Boulanger et al 2014. Analyses conducted within the northwest (Figure 1, region b) and central RIA study area (Figure 1, region c) revealed that regions that are already characterized by a relatively short fire interval and low productivity will be increasingly vulnerable to regeneration failure with changes in burn rate (Splawinski et al 2019a,c, Cyr et al 2021, Forestier en Chef 2021a), with regeneration failures that could cover more than 30% of the territory by 2100 under RCP 8.5 (Figures 4i and 4ii). Such changes will promote an important switch from boreal forest landscapes to unproductive open woodlands (Splawinski et al 2019a, hindering the recruitment of trees and maintaining low stand density over time (Splawinski et al 2018) that could in turn alter future timber harvesting.…”

“…In some projects, the study area covered most of the commercial forest study area ) whereas others focused on smaller regions projected to experience specific climate-induced vulnerabilities (e.g., Splawinski et al 2019a, c, Cyr et al 2021, Moreau et al 2022. (2021), Leblond et al (2022).…”

“…(2021), Leblond et al (2022). Also corresponds to the Quebec's managed forest as well as the intensive protection zone for fire suppression; Region b: Cyr et al (2021); Region c: FEC (2021); Region d: Landry et al (2021); Regions e1 and e2: Moreau et al (2022), Labadie et al (in prep. ); Region f: .…”

Analyse d’une stratégie de production de bois : perspectives d’experts

“…La contribution de l'aménagement forestier à l'atténuation des changements climatiques ne peut pas être généralisée; elle dépend des produits générés par la récolte industrielle des forêts, de l'état des sites forestiers résiduels et de l'efficacité d'approvisionnement et de transformation des industries qui utilisent la matière ligneuse (Moreau et al 2022). L'effet des changements climatiques mêmes sur la composition et la productivité des écosystèmes forestiers pourrait aussi limiter la capacité future du secteur forestier à contribuer à la séquestration et au stockage du carbone (Valade et al 2017;Landry et al 2021).…”

Environmental and Economic Analysis of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power Plant Using CO2 Utilization Technologies and Ecosystem Services

“…Forest ecosystems have also been considered as part of the connections to climate change. Landry et al 25 have shown the application of ecosystems based on boreal-temperate forests for forest management under climate change. A collection of works and views on ecosystems in connection to climate change have been gathered in the recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).…”