Mobilization and Countermobilization: The Effect of Candidate Visits on Campaign Donations in the 2016 Presidential Election

Be Careful What You Wish For: The Impacts of President Trump’s Midterm Endorsements

“…While previous research has focused on the effects that presidential campaigning (both in presidential and midterm election years) has on the endorsed candidate’s vote shares (Cohen, Krassa, and Hamman 1991; Herrnson and Morris 2007; Jacobson, Kernell, and Lazarus 2004; Keele, Fogarty, and Stimson 2004) and fundraising capacities (Jacobson, Kernell, and Lazarus 2004), we might also expect the increased attention brought by a presidential endorsement to influence the ability of candidates opposing the endorsed candidate to raise money and to turn out voters. Indeed, recent work has shown that local campaign events can have both a mobilizing effect and a countermobilizing effect (Heersink, Peterson, and Peterson 2018). In a nationalized and polarized political environment, the president’s public and prominent endorsement sends a clear signal to not only his own party’s major donors but also to donors from the opposing party.…”

“…In an increasingly polarized and nationalized political era (and in a time where the sitting president is generally unpopular), these effects may prompt backlash. Indeed, recent research has suggested that a candidate’s own campaign visits to a local area increase donations both to that candidate and to their opponent(s) (Heersink, Peterson, and Peterson 2018). While a presidential endorsement may be a boon to candidates by mobilizing supporters, in a polarized and nationalized political setting it is likely also to mobilize the opposition and may ultimately have a negative impact.…”

“…While scholars have previously looked at the effect of presidential endorsements on a candidate’s own fundraising, we also raise the possibility of spillover effects that may benefit the endorsed candidate’s opponent. Recent work has highlighted the countermobilization effects that local campaign events can have in the local community on fundraising and voter registration (Heersink, Peterson, and Peterson 2018). While endorsements at the local level may not normally attract the attention necessary to rally opposition on a national scale, politics has become more nationalized, and congressional candidates are running in a manner more closely associated with the party brand (Hopkins 2018; Jacobson 2015a, 2015b).…”

“…Although there has not been any study of the effects of presidential interventions on fundraising success of opposition candidates, research on the effects of presidential statements on public opinion suggests that presidential action not only rallies supporters, but also rallies opponents (Heersink, Peterson, and Peterson 2018; Lee 2009). Thus, President Trump’s endorsements may not only boost the profile of endorsed Republican candidates, but also cause opponents of the president to focus their attention on races in which the president makes an endorsement.…”

The Mixed Effects of Candidate Visits on Campaign Donations in the 2020 Presidential Election

“…To be sure, campaigns would like to increase votes or support in polls. But, as Heersink, Peterson and Peterson (forthcoming) note, while most studies present their results as testing a unidirectional effect, using aggregate vote or polling data might conflate multiple simultaneous effects. That is, generally a candidate’s visit is expected to either have a positive or no effect on approval or vote totals.…”