Mock-Up of Information Service for Automated Monitoring and Short-Term Forecasting of Severe Earthquakes in the Kamchatka-Sakhalin Region

Abstract

The article is devoted to the analysis of the development and control of the operation of the functional mock-up of the information service for automated monitoring and short-term forecasting of severe earthquakes in the Kamchatka-Sakhalin region. The tasks of the service mock-up concerning the collection, processing of data on earthquake precursors, the forecasting of severe (earthquake magnitude 6 or more) earthquakes in the form of estimates of the times of their onset, coordinates of epicenters (latitude and longitude) and earthquake magnitudes are determined. Taking the geoinformational character of the initial data on the approaching earthquakes as the basis for constructing the mock-up of the service, a geo-integration platform is proposed. This allows the integration of the information resources of the earthquake precursor monitoring systems, the functions of processing monitoring information into earthquake forecasts, the results of generating earthquake forecasts and their presentation to consumers into a single geoinformation environment. The composition of the service mock-up and the functioning of such elements as microservices are considered: collection and processing data from receivers of radio navigation signals of the GPS/GLONASS systems; collection and processing of data on the global distribution of TEC in the ionosphere; collection and processing of data on geomagnetic conditions, the flux of solar radio emission, thermal anomalies, as well as data concerning the atmospheric anomalies over the test site area and a unit for presenting and communicating the results of the operation of the information service mock-up for automated monitoring and short-term forecasting of severe earthquakes. The results of service operation are illustrated with the help of examples of retrospective forecasting of a number of severe earthquakes that occurred over the past 10 years in the Kamchatka-Sakhalin region, according to their precursors.