Model Assessment of the Financial Stability of Travel Industry Entities with Reference to Sustainable Development

Abstract

The article is aimed at describing and testing a methodology for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise operating in travel industry. In analyzing the activities of a travel industry entity with reference to sustainable development, attention is focused on indicators of financial stability and one of the main financial risks, i.e., the threat of bankruptcy. Modern methods of discriminant analysis used to determine bankruptcy probability, are analyzed as for the adequacy of their use to assess the activities of travel industry entities, and the specificity of their application is described. The available performance indices of a travel agency are analyzed, whose indicators of bankruptcy probability were defined and interpreted as showing that the financial situation at the travel agency in question was satisfactory as for its sustainable development. It is confirmed that of the most widely used methods estimating bankruptcy probability, Matviychuk's model and a modified Altman model are the most proper ones in assessing travel industry entities. Comparison of the results of their application with the entity classification made on the basis of a more commonly used Beaver coefficient shows a high level of consistency among the discriminant models considered. It is noted that taking into account the specifics of the model application and choosing financial indicators are the key to conducting a qualitative analysis and implementing effective anti-crisis policy at an enterprise with reference to its sustainable development. Further analysis of travel industry entities with reference to sustainable development is planned to be conducted using the concept of dynamic equilibrium of the economic system and its effective development