Model-based assessments of climate change effects on forests: a critical review

Loehle, Craig; LeBlanc, David C.

doi:10.1016/0304-3800(96)83709-4

Cited by 284 publications

(251 citation statements)

References 97 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

243

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…Furthermore, regular forest management, such as artificially supported natural regeneration, can artificially maintain a species and suspend range shifts, thereby further contributing to any time lag in range retractions [64]. Additionally, suppression of wildfires can speed or slow range shifts by allowing stand density to increase across the range of many fire-prone species, but also increasing the risk that catastrophic wildfires will occur in particularly hot and/or dry years [22,70,71].…”

Section: Anthropogenic Alteration Of Range Limitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species

Jump

Mátyás

Peñuelas

2009

Trends in Ecology & Evolution

436

369

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Increasing temperatures are driving rapid upward range shifts of species in mountains. An altitudinal range retreat of 10 m is predicted to translate into a $10-km latitudinal retreat based on the rate at which temperatures decline with increasing altitude and latitude, yet reports of latitudinal range retractions are sparse. Here, we examine potential climatic, biological, anthropogenic and methodological explanations for this disparity. We argue that the lack of reported latitudinal range retractions stems more from a lack of research effort, compounded by methodological difficulties, rather than from their absence. Given the predicted negative impacts of increasing temperatures on wide areas of the latitudinal distributions of species, the investigation of range retractions should become a priority in biogeographical research.Climate change and shifting plant distribution The geographical distribution of plants is strongly influenced by climate [1]. Minimum temperatures are particularly important in limiting the poleward (see Glossary) expansion of plant species, whereas limited water availability interacts with high temperatures to exert a direct climatic limitation on their expansion in the opposite, or equatorial, direction in many regions [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. Changes in climate are, therefore, predicted to alter the geographic distribution of plant species at global to local scales.Contemporary plant range shifts are most frequently reported from mountain regions, with elevational shifts of the mountain treeline being the most commonly documented response to increasing temperatures [8][9][10][11][12]. The distributions of species in mountain regions are typically restricted to relatively narrow and well-delineated altitudinal bands, in comparison with often broad and poorly defined latitudinal distributions in the lowlands. This strong altitudinal zonation of mountain vegetation, and its climatic sensitivity [13], makes mountains ideal 'natural laboratories' and favoured locations for the study of climate change impacts worldwide [13][14][15].The altitudinal compression of montane vegetation zones is due to a rapid decrease in temperature with increasing elevation ($5-6.5 8C per 1000 m) [3,14], which contrasts with a similar temperature decline occurring over $1000 km of latitude (6.9 8C at 458 N or S) [3]. An implication of this altitude-for-latitude temperature model is that general biogeographical patterns resulting from the climatic limitations imposed on plants in mountains should also be observed in neighbouring lowland regions with similar temperature and moisture regimes. Distributional shifts already observed in mountain plants [8,[16][17][18] should, therefore, be mirrored by lowland range changes occurring over distances that are several orders of magnitude larger (Figure 1).Here, we discuss the implications of the altitude-forlatitude model for shifts in plant distributions and examine why lowland range shifts, particularly range retractions, are rarely reported. We discuss potential climati...

show abstract

Section: Anthropogenic Alteration Of Range Limitsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species

Jump

Mátyás

Peñuelas

2009

Trends in Ecology & Evolution

436

369

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Forest pests will also move northward with the shift in forest location due to warmer temperatures. The indirect effects of climate change on forests, mediated by alterations of disturbance regimes or the actions of pests and pathogens, may accelerate climate-induced change in forests (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996).…”

Section: Ecosystemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

Wuebbles

Hayhoe

2004

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

139

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Environmental and societal factors such as air quality, water quality and availability, land use changes and expanding urbanization are already affecting human health and welfare, agriculture, and natural ecosystems in the Midwestern United States. Over this century, these existing stresses will likely be exacerbated by climate changes resulting from human activities. It is essential that policy decisions aimed at preserving the well-being of a region be informed by a good understanding of the region's climate, how climate might change, and the uncertainties inherent in future projections. Recent updates in climate modeling expertise and an expanded view of possible non-intervention emission scenarios have narrowed the range of change that can be expected over the Midwest throughout the next century in some ways, while broadening it in others. In contrast to previous studies, which generally consider a mid-range scenario for future emissions, this study presents the range of change that would result from low to high scenarios for climate change. In this way we account for uncertainties in anthropogenic forcing on climate change in the region and quantify the potential effects of human actions on future climate. This analysis also combines the latest climate model projections with historical records of observed climate over the past century, effectively placing potential changes in extreme event frequencies such as heavy rainfall events and temperature threshold exceedances within the context of observed variability over the past century. The purpose of this study is to provide an updated picture of the potential impacts of climate change on the Midwest to inform the impact assessment and policy development community. From the magnitude of the changes projected by this study, it is clear that these must be included in future policy decisions in order to ensure the successful adaptation and survival of existing human and natural systems in the Midwest.

show abstract

“…In general, models that predict future biogeographic distributions are lacking good data on population dynamics over time (Kearney and Porter 2009). Empirical data on stand structure can be used to calibrate distribution models (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996), and when combined with historical data, they have the potential to reveal important responses to disturbances and global change factors not properly accounted for by models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changing forest structure across the landscape of the Sierra Nevada, CA, USA, since the 1930s

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Understanding the dynamics of forest structure aids inference regarding future forests and their distributions around the world. Over the last few decades, several papers have addressed changing forest structure in the Sierra Nevada, CA, USA, but these studies were limited in scope. We carried out a broad comparison of forest density and composition in the 1930s versus the 2000s for the west slope of the central and northern Sierra Nevada, using the two most extensive data sets available. Forests in this region have endured a long, complex history of human disturbance, and are now experiencing climatic shifts. We subdivided the landscape into elevation and latitude zones and compared historical and modern tree densities within each zone. We compared densities in historical plots to burned and unburned modern plots, as well as densities of individual tree species in historical vs. modern plots for their entire elevational distribution. Density of small trees (10.2–30.4 cm dbh) was significantly higher in the modern data set for all elevations and all latitudes, ranging from 20 to 148% higher. However, density of large trees (≥61.0 cm) was lower in the modern data set for most elevations and latitudes, ranging from 41% to 60% lower in most zones. Density difference of mid‐sized trees (30.5–60.9 cm) was mixed, but was generally higher in modern plots. The pattern of more small trees but fewer large trees held for most individual species as well, but with notable exceptions. Our comparison of burned and unburned plots strongly implicates fire suppression as a driver of increased density of small trees in low‐ to mid‐elevation forests. However, modern high‐elevation (>2500 m) forests, where fire suppression impacts should be minimal, were also significantly denser than historical plots. Changing climatic conditions may be driving increased densities of small trees in high elevations, as well as decreased densities of large trees across the region.

show abstract

Model-based assessments of climate change effects on forests: a critical review

Cited by 284 publications

References 97 publications

The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species

The altitude-for-latitude disparity in the range retractions of woody species

Climate Change Projections for the United States Midwest

Changing forest structure across the landscape of the Sierra Nevada, CA, USA, since the 1930s

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About